An Analysis of Sovereign Credit Ratings Impact on Financial Development in South Africa

Abstract

Purpose: The study analyses the effects of sovereign credit ratings on financial development in South Africa. This became important considering that the country has been receiving negative ratings of late. Design/Methodology/Approach:  Quarterly data for the period 1994-2017 was analysed using the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration model and its associated statistics. The Error Correction Model (ECM) was implemented to augment the results of ARDL analysing the short run dynamics. The model was chosen given the order of integration of the variables. Financial development was selected since it influences financial conditions and financial sector stability. Findings:  The statistical results revealed that sovereign ratings positively influence financial variables that is in other words higher ratings are found to contribute positively to the growth of the financial development sector. Negative ratings are likely to affect the financial system as due to low access to external funding and exodus of investors, financial development is halted or decreased. Implications/Originality/Value: The results suggest that authorities need to consider the factors which are targeted by rating agencies and ensure that they perform as expected. Governments should focus on raising sovereign ratings and avoiding downgrades to boost financial development.