Simulation analysis on destabilization of complex adaptive organizations

Abstract

Many adversarial organizations, such as organized crime groups, terrorist networks, and the like, are complex adaptive organizations. Therefore, strategies against them should consider the natures of complexity and adaptivity. However, such natures create nonlinear effects that are difficult to predict. To mitigate those difficulties, I utilize agent-based simulations that could possibly capture unexpected responses coming from our interventions into their organizations. This paper presents a simulation analysis example of an action against a terrorist group. Particularly, this example points out three critical aspects of simulation analysis. First, this simulation example shows how to setup a simulation analysis to anticipate an intervention's results. Second, this example illustrates various results making analysis useful. Third, this example describes statistical processing of the results. I expect that the three points will advance the current practices of simulation analysis on complex adaptive organizations.