Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Ischemic Heart Disease Morbidity and Mortality in China, 1990-2019.

Abstract

Background: The disease burden of ischemic heart disease (IHD) continues to increase. This study aimed to assess the age, period, and cohort effects on the long-term trends of IHD incidence and mortality in China from 1990 to 2019.

Methods and results: The data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, and the age-standardized incidence/mortality rate (ASIR/ASMR) was calculated. The age-period-cohort (APC) model, which is a generalized linear model revealing the correlation of disease rate and attained age, period, and cohort, was applied to estimate the net drift (estimated annual percentage change [EAPC]s), the local drifts (age-specific EAPCs), the age, period, and cohort effects. The analyses elucidated that the ASIR and ASMR of IHD declined after 2013. The net drift of incidence was 0.212% in females, and the net drift of mortality was 0.371% in males. The local drifts of mortality were above 0 in males aged 20-84 years and in females aged 65-84 years. The age effects showed elevated trends during the study period. The period effects declined after 2013. The cohort effects of mortality in males were higher than that in females.

Conclusions: The decrease of ASIR and ASMR indicated that measures to prevent IHD have been effective in China. However, the cardiovascular health of the elderly and males should be considered in future policy decisions.