Determinants of When-to-evacuate Decisions: An Empirical Investigation

Abstract

Evacuation is a critical process that affects the reduction of loss risk. Previous studies have indicated that evacuation decision-making has significantly affected the effectiveness of evacuation efforts. The present study aims at evaluating the determinants of when-to-evacuate decisions. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multinomial Logistics Regression (MLR) were used to identify the determinants' relative importance and assess the relationship between the determinants and when-to-evacuate decisions. An empirical survey based on a hundred respondents who have experienced the Merapi eruption was conducted. AHP indicates that the most important determinants to the least are perceived hazard, distance to disaster, trust in leaders, disaster experience, ownership of livestock, and cultural belief. Disaster experience and trust in leaders are significant determinants for early evacuation, whereas the distance to disaster and livestock ownership are significant determinants for late evacuation. Avenues for future studies are also discussed.