A Time Series Analysis of the Trend of Crime Against Property in Oke-Ogun Region of Oyo State, Nigeria

Abstract

Temporal variation in spatial crime occurrence has been a topical issue in environmental criminology and criminal justice research, especially in the area of generating early warning systems for preparedness against crime. However, the concentration of research effort on urban crime pattern with unjustified neglect of regional crime impedes the search for analytical explanations and effective strategies to eradicate crime. Hence, this study examined fluctuant pattern of property crime in Oke-Ogun region of Oyo State, Nigeria. It also assessed direction and incidence speed of the crime in the area. This is with a view to understanding the influence of changes in time (year factor) and other factors (a faulty system of education, erosion of traditional values, porous border, and unemployment among others). over property crime occurrence in the region. Crime reports were collated from the Nigerian Police records on nine typologies of property crime from 2005 to 2012. The geo-analytical techniques employed to examine temporal variations in crime were exponential trend smoothing technique with a smoothing constant of 0.3 and the least-squares trend analytical technique. Regression and correlation coefficients represented by “b” and “r” respectively were used to determine the changing rate of the crimes over the period of year under investigation. Analysis showed that out of the nine crime types that were analysed, three crimes were found to exhibit a rising trend with the effluxion of year while six exhibited a declining trend. Aggregately, crime against property had downward sloping trend lines. The negative values associated with (b = – 93.04, r = – 0.62) property crime confirmed the negative lapse rates and inverse relationships. The coefficient of determination (r2) in this case is 0.3969. However, the study concluded that 39.69% of variations in the level of property crime were influenced by changes in year and 60.31% was explained by other factors which included a faulty system of education, erosion of traditional values, porous border, and unemployment among others.