Using Decision Analysis to Determine the Feasibility of a Conservation Translocation

IF 2.5 4区 管理学 Q3 MANAGEMENT Decision Analysis Pub Date : 2023-03-31 DOI:10.1287/deca.2023.0472
Laura M. Keating, L. Randall, R. Stanton, Casey McCormack, M. Lucid, T. Seaborn, S. Converse, S. Canessa, A. Moehrenschlager
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引用次数: 1

Abstract

Conservation translocations, intentional movements of species to protect against extinction, have become widespread in recent decades and are projected to increase further as biodiversity loss continues worldwide. The literature abounds with analyses to inform translocations and assess whether they are successful, but the fundamental question of whether they should be initiated at all is rarely addressed formally. We used decision analysis to assess northern leopard frog reintroduction in northern Idaho, with success defined as a population that persists for at least 50 years. The Idaho Department of Fish and Game was the decision maker (i.e., the agency that will use this assessment to inform their decisions). Stakeholders from government, indigenous groups, academia, land management agencies, and conservation organizations also participated. We built an age-structured population model to predict how management alternatives would affect probability of success. In the model, we explicitly represented epistemic uncertainty around a success criterion (probability of persistence) characterized by aleatory uncertainty. For the leading alternative, the mean probability of persistence was 40%. The distribution of the modelling results was bimodal, with most parameter combinations resulting in either very low (<5%) or relatively high (>95%) probabilities of success. Along with other considerations, including cost, the Idaho Department of Fish and Game will use this assessment to inform a decision regarding reintroduction of northern leopard frogs. Conservation translocations may benefit greatly from more widespread use of decision analysis to counter the complexity and uncertainty inherent in these decisions. History: This paper has been accepted for the Decision Analysis Special Issue on Further Environmental Sustainability. Funding: This work was supported by the Wilder Institute/Calgary Zoo, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service [Grant F18AS00095], the NSF Idaho EPSCoR Program and the National Science Foundation [Grant OIA-1757324], and the Hunt Family Foundation. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0472 .
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用决策分析确定保护易位的可行性
近几十年来,保护易位,即为防止物种灭绝而有意移动的物种,已经变得普遍,并且随着世界范围内生物多样性的继续丧失,预计将进一步增加。文献中有大量的分析来为易位提供信息并评估它们是否成功,但它们是否应该启动的基本问题很少得到正式解决。我们使用决策分析来评估在爱达荷州北部重新引入北方豹蛙,成功定义为种群持续至少50年。爱达荷州渔猎部是决策者(也就是说,该机构将使用该评估来告知他们的决定)。来自政府、土著群体、学术界、土地管理机构和保护组织的利益相关者也参加了会议。我们建立了一个年龄结构的人口模型来预测管理方案如何影响成功的概率。在模型中,我们明确地表示了围绕一个以选择性不确定性为特征的成功标准(持续概率)的认知不确定性。对于领先的替代方案,持续的平均概率为40%。建模结果的分布是双峰的,大多数参数组合导致成功概率非常低(95%)。考虑到其他因素,包括成本,爱达荷州渔猎局将利用这一评估来决定是否重新引入北方豹蛙。更广泛地使用决策分析来对抗这些决策中固有的复杂性和不确定性,可能会极大地受益于保护易位。历史:本文已被《进一步环境可持续性决策分析特刊》接受。资助:这项工作得到了怀尔德研究所/卡尔加里动物园,美国鱼类和野生动物管理局[Grant F18AS00095],美国国家科学基金会爱达荷州EPSCoR计划和国家科学基金会[Grant OIA-1757324]以及亨特家庭基金会的支持。补充材料:在线附录可在https://doi.org/10.1287/deca.2023.0472上获得。
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来源期刊
Decision Analysis
Decision Analysis MANAGEMENT-
CiteScore
3.10
自引率
21.10%
发文量
19
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