Projected impact of climate change on rice yield in two agro-ecological zones in South- Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo

Abstract

Rice (Oryza sativa) is one of the five most important staple foods in South-Kivu, with high and increasing demand. The gap between the demand and supply has led to increased importation of rice in the region. Changes in climate are likely to further worsen this gap. This study determined the impact of future climate on paddy rice yield in high altitude plateau and semi-arid Lowland plain of South Kivu region. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator Model (APSIM) was used to simulate the impact of climate change scenarios -two periods: Mid and end-century, and for two Representative Concentration Pathways: 4.5 and 8.5- on rice yield. Based on the APSIM, rice grain yield is projected to increase with climate change in high altitude plateau while in the semi-arid lowland plain a slight increase in grain yield followed by a decline is projected in the end-century under RCP 8.5. These findings have potential to compliment rice farmers increase their coping capacity against climate change especially in semi-arid lowland plain where negative impacts are projected.