Determinants of external debt, export-import, FDI, exchange rate, to foreign exchange reserves through balance of payments as intervening variables

Andi Dyna Riana, Retno Fitrianti, Muliana, Wiwin Anggriani Salawali, Rusneni, Arianto Taliding, Abdullah, Asriani, Arfandi SN
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Abstract

Foreign exchange reserves are interpreted as part of national savings and are a very important monetary indicator to show the strength or weakness of the country's economic fundamentals. Foreign exchange reserves is influenced by various factors, including; external debt, exports, imports, investment, and balance of payments. The purpose of this study is to analyze the determination (degree of influence) of factors of foreign debt, import exports, FDI, exchange rates, on foreign exchange reserves through and balance of payments (BOP). The research method used is a quantitative research method with secondary data types in the form of data series with a period of 12 years (2011-2022). The data analysis method used is path analysis. With the help of E-views software. The results of the analysis p there is a structure/path I obtained that the exchange rate variable has a real effect on the BOP (balance sheet), In the structure/path I it is obtained that the exchange rate variable has a real effect on the BOP. While simultaneously (together) it is known that the variables X1, X2, X3, X4, and X5 not significant effect on Y1 (balance of payments). The results of the structure/path II analysis found that the external debt variable had a real effect on the country's foreign exchange reserves, and simultaneously (together) it was known that the variables X1, X2, X3, X4, X5 and X6/Y1 had a real effect on Y2 (foreign exchange reserves). In addition, it was also found that the balance of payments /BOP variable as an intervening variable did not have a real effect on foreign exchange reserves.
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外债的决定因素,进出口,外国直接投资,汇率,以外汇储备通过国际收支作为干预变量
外汇储备被解释为国民储蓄的一部分,是反映一个国家经济基本面强弱的非常重要的货币指标。外汇储备受多种因素的影响,包括:外债、出口、进口、投资和国际收支。本研究的目的是分析外债、进出口、FDI、汇率等因素对外汇储备和国际收支(BOP)的决定(影响程度)。研究方法采用定量研究方法,二次数据类型为数据序列形式,周期为12年(2011-2022年)。使用的数据分析方法是路径分析。借助E-views软件。分析的结果p有一个结构/路径I得到汇率变量对BOP(资产负债表)有实际影响,在结构/路径I得到汇率变量对BOP有实际影响。同时(一起)已知变量X1, X2, X3, X4和X5对Y1(国际收支)没有显著影响。结构/路径II分析的结果发现,外债变量对国家外汇储备有真实的影响,同时(一起)已知变量X1、X2、X3、X4、X5和X6/Y1对Y2(外汇储备)有真实的影响。此外,还发现国际收支/国际收支差额变量作为一个干预变量对外汇储备没有实际影响。
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