Long-term monitoring of aridization in agriculture before change and for climate change in Ukraine

Abstract

The results of systematic monitoring in Ukraine of drought manifestations by the method of generalization of spring, summer and autumn droughts conducted by I. Ye. Buchynsky for 1872-1969 and our meteorological generalizations by types of weather (1951-1984) and clearly expressed zonal climate changes (1985-2006) and statistical and local signs of climate aridization at the meteorological station in the northern part of the Forest-Steppe (" Shepherds ") – 2006-2020, covering a total historical period of 150 years. According to the spatial distribution of droughts, determined by a single method, from 1982 to the late 60s of the twentieth century. Mainly in the south of Ukraine, in 2 years. The number of moderate and extensive droughts since the early twentieth century. (11-30 % of the area of distribution), characteristic of the summer period, and they are repeated in the south in 4-5 years. Catastrophic droughts (more than 50%) are characteristic of large areas for every tenth year, which, since the last quarter of the nineteenth century and to the 50s of the twentieth century. Ended in famine for the population (especially the droughts of 1891, 1921, 1947). Subsequent droughts in 1963 and 1968 were characterized by abnormal weather conditions, but without a food crisis, which was associated with the beginning of chemicalization and the increase in agricultural crops. Meteorological indicators of six stations in different climatic zones for 1951-1981 and 1985-2008 indicate a zonal systematic increase in positive air temperatures with decreasing precipitation, the deficit of which is compensated by the system of agriculture with moderate saturation of organic and mineral fertilizers, which have a stabilizing effect extreme years. From the last quarter of the twentieth century. Climate change has been identified, which is related not only to the greenhouse effect, but also to the frequency that depends on the ecliptic of the globe. Particularly noticeable climate change in recent decades, accompanied by a systematic increase in air temperature and increasing aridity of the climate, and requires humanity to new technical and technological solutions.