Assessing Budget Risk with Monte Carlo and Time Series Bootstrap

Abstract

Budgets are important management tools recognized for their help in planning, communication, monitoring the expense  performance, and even motivating collaborators. However, recently there has been criticism of the traditional Budgeting Process due to its cumbersomeness, long duration, and eventual diversion of the focus from the day-to-day activities. Thus, improving the Budgeting Process by incorporating Expense component uncertainties is of uttermost importance to accelerate its approval. This paper presents a methodology for companies to assess their budget risk based on their historical Expense data by applying Monte Carlo Simulation and Time Series Bootstrapping Techniques. Besides, some state-of-the-art sensitivity Importance Measures are also implemented to help evaluate the relative importance of the Expense components. The methodology proposed, based on a real case study with data from a major Portuguese retailer, has the advantage of being objective and supported by data, thus not being subject to bias from the management.