The Effect of The Extremes Heat Waves on Mortality Rates in Baghdad During the Period (2004-2018)

Zahraa M. Hassan, M. Al-Jiboori, H. Al-Abassi
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引用次数: 4

Abstract

In a previous couple of decades, serious heatwaves were illustrative of the climate conditions in different pieces of the world. They had unmistakably negative effects on people, plants, creatures, and distinctive monetary segments. Especially in urban areas, where most people are living, their prosperity, productivity and wellbeing were influenced, which even caused a generally high death rate. This is the reason an enormous intrigue still exists to analyze heat waves in the past by utilization of measurable strategies. As an examination on heatwaves isn't accessible for the domain of Baghdad city up to now, a review examination was directed. Its primary points were (1) to decide the recurrence of heatwave scenes for this nation and (2) to analyze their spatiotemporal dissemination, term, and force. Based on Baghdad city, from the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology and Ministry of Health day by day estimations of most extreme air temperature (Tmax) in summer months (June to August) were utilized to decide heatwave scenes as indicated by the definition prescribed by the IPCC. For all stations, total and dependable Tmax time arrangements were accessible for the period 2004–2018 concerning a few stations. We tried the 95th thresholds percentile. The extra wave impacts were assessed utilizing a one-stage model to guarantee that their belongings were evaluated subsequent to expelling the general impact of temperature.
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2004-2018年期间极端热浪对巴格达死亡率的影响
在过去的几十年里,严重的热浪是世界不同地区气候状况的例证。它们对人类、植物、生物和独特的货币板块都有明显的负面影响。特别是在大多数人居住的城市地区,他们的繁荣、生产力和福祉受到了影响,甚至造成了普遍较高的死亡率。这就是为什么人们仍然热衷于利用可测量的策略来分析过去的热浪。到目前为止,巴格达市内还没有对热浪进行检查,因此指示进行重新检查。其主要观点是:(1)确定该国热浪场景的重现情况;(2)分析其时空传播、持续时间和强度。以巴格达市为例,利用伊拉克气象组织、地震学和卫生部对夏季月份(6月至8月)最极端气温(Tmax)的逐日估计来确定IPCC规定的定义所示的热浪场景。对于所有台站,可以获得2004-2018年期间少数台站的总和可靠的Tmax时间安排。我们尝试了第95个阈值百分位数。使用单阶段模型评估额外的波浪影响,以确保在排除温度的一般影响之后评估他们的财产。
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