Forecasting in hierarchical environments

Abstract

Forecasting is an important data analysis technique and serves as the basis for business planning in many application areas such as energy, sales and traffic management. The currently employed statistical models already provide very accurate predictions, but the forecasting calculation process is very time consuming. This is especially true since many application domains deal with hierarchically organized data. Forecasting in these environments is especially challenging due to ensuring forecasting consistency between hierarchy levels, which leads to an increased data processing and communication effort. For this purpose, we introduce our novel hierarchical forecasting approach, where we propose to push forecast models to the entities on the lowest hierarch level and reuse these models to efficiently create forecast models on higher hierarchical levels. With that we avoid the time-consuming parameter estimation process and allow an almost instant calculation of forecasts.