Climate Change Impact on Landslide Risk - Estimating Change in Heavy Precipitation Event Frequencies / Auswirkung des Klimawandels auf das Hangrutschungsrisiko - Abschätzung des Auftretens künftiger Starkregenereignisse

Abstract

Landslides can pose a serious threat to settlements and infrastructure. In addition to orographic, geologic, soiland land-based triggers, extreme precipitation is a climate-induced trigger that can affect the strength and frequency of landslide events. Here we investigate current and future extreme precipitation events in two study areas in Austria; in Waidhofen an der Ybbs north; and in Paldau south of the Alpine main ridge; to detect possible changes in landslide risk due to climate change. The comparison of the number of extreme precipitation events in recent decades and the number of potential events in the decades to come, extracted from future climate scenarios, shows a moderate to significant increase in the number of extreme rainfall events in both study regions.