Insurgent Armies: Military Obedience and State Formation after Rebel Victory

IF 4.8 1区 社会学 Q1 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS International Security Pub Date : 2022-02-01 DOI:10.1162/isec_a_00427
Philip A. Martin
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

Abstract Why do some winning rebel groups build obedient and effective state militaries after civil war, while others suffer military defections? When winning rebels face intense security threats during civil wars, rebel field commanders are more likely to remain obedient during war-to-peace transitions. Intense security threats incentivize militants to create more inclusive leadership structures, reducing field commanders’ incentives to defect in the postwar period. Intense security threats also reduce commanders’ capacity for postwar resistance by forcing insurgents to remain mobile and adopt shorter time horizons in rebel-governed territory, reducing the likelihood that field commanders will develop local ties and independent support bases. The plausibility of the argument is examined using a new list of winning rebel groups since 1946. Two case studies—Zimbabwe and Côte d'Ivoire—probe the causal mechanisms of the theory. The study contributes to debates about the consequences of military victory in civil war, the postwar trajectories of armed groups, and the conditions necessary for civil-military cohesion in fragile states.
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起义军:起义军胜利后的军事服从与国家形成
为什么一些获胜的反叛组织在内战后建立了服从和有效的国家军队,而另一些则遭受军事叛变?当获胜的叛军在内战中面临严重的安全威胁时,叛军的战地指挥官更有可能在从战争到和平的过渡时期保持顺从。严重的安全威胁促使武装分子建立更具包容性的领导结构,减少了战地指挥官在战后叛变的动机。激烈的安全威胁也削弱了指挥官的战后抵抗能力,迫使叛乱分子保持流动性,并在叛乱分子控制的领土内采取更短的时间跨度,降低了战地指挥官发展当地联系和独立支持基地的可能性。我们用一份1946年以来获胜反叛组织的新名单来检验这一论点的合理性。两个案例研究——津巴布韦和Côte科特迪瓦——探讨了这一理论的因果机制。这项研究有助于讨论内战中军事胜利的后果、武装团体的战后轨迹,以及脆弱国家军民团结的必要条件。
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来源期刊
International Security
International Security Social Sciences-Law
CiteScore
7.40
自引率
10.00%
发文量
13
期刊介绍: International Security publishes lucid, well-documented essays on the full range of contemporary security issues. Its articles address traditional topics of war and peace, as well as more recent dimensions of security, including environmental, demographic, and humanitarian issues, transnational networks, and emerging technologies. International Security has defined the debate on US national security policy and set the agenda for scholarship on international security affairs for more than forty years. The journal values scholarship that challenges the conventional wisdom, examines policy, engages theory, illuminates history, and discovers new trends. Readers of IS discover new developments in: The causes and prevention of war U.S.-China relations Great power politics Ethnic conflict and intra-state war Terrorism and insurgency Regional security in Africa, Asia, Europe, and Latin America U.S. foreign and defense policy International relations theory Diplomatic and military history Cybersecurity and defense technology Political economy, business, and security Nuclear proliferation.
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