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A “Nuclear Umbrella” for Ukraine? Precedents and Possibilities for Postwar European Security 乌克兰的 "核保护伞"?战后欧洲安全的先例与可能性
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00476
Matthew Evangelista
Abstract Whatever the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War, in its wake Ukraine will need to choose a security policy to defend its sovereignty from future threats. Its choice holds implications for broader European security. Some observers advocate Ukraine becoming a member in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), thereby gaining protection from the U.S. “nuclear umbrella.” Others doubt the effectiveness of “extended nuclear deterrence”—the threat of U.S. nuclear retaliation for attacks, including those carried out with conventional armed forces, on an ally's territory. But nuclear deterrence was never put to the test in Cold War Europe, and today extended nuclear deterrence is an unreliable and risky approach to Russian aggression. An examination of the role of nuclear deterrence during the 1961 Berlin Crisis demonstrates that Soviet military strategy against U.S. nuclear weapons posed the risk of escalation. In vulnerable NATO territories, such as the Estonian city of Narva, such a risk still exists. A Cold War–era alternative to nuclear deterrence offers the possibility of a non-nuclear defense for Ukraine. Proposals such as the “spider in the web” strategy draw on concepts of the security dilemma and non-offensive, confidence-building defense to provide for Ukrainian security in a Europe threatened by Russian expansion, without relying on the threat of nuclear war.
摘要 无论俄乌战争的结果如何,乌克兰都需要选择一种安全政策来捍卫自己的主权不受未来的威胁。它的选择会对更广泛的欧洲安全产生影响。一些观察家主张乌克兰加入北大西洋公约组织(NATO),从而获得美国 "核保护伞 "的保护。其他人则怀疑 "延伸核威慑 "的有效性--即美国对盟国领土上的攻击(包括使用常规武装力量实施的攻击)进行核报复的威胁。但是,核威慑从未在冷战时期的欧洲经受过考验,如今,延伸核威慑已成为应对俄罗斯侵略的一种不可靠且充满风险的方法。对 1961 年柏林危机期间核威慑作用的研究表明,苏联针对美国核武器的军事战略存在升级的风险。在爱沙尼亚城市纳尔瓦等脆弱的北约领土上,这种风险依然存在。冷战时期核威慑的替代方案为乌克兰提供了非核防御的可能性。网中蜘蛛 "战略等建议借鉴了安全困境和非进攻性、建立信任防御的概念,为乌克兰在受到俄罗斯扩张威胁的欧洲提供安全保障,而无需依赖核战争威胁。
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引用次数: 0
Reining in Rebellion: The Decline of Political Violence in South America, 1830–1929 遏制叛乱:南美洲政治暴力的衰落,1830-1929 年
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00479
Raúl L. Madrid, Luis L. Schenoni
Abstract During the nineteenth century, South America was plagued by internal rebellions that destabilized the region's economies and political systems. At the beginning of the twentieth century, however, levels of political violence throughout the region declined dramatically. Existing scholarship has paid surprisingly little attention to this historic transformation, in part because comprehensive data on revolts have been lacking. Historical narratives and an analysis of a comprehensive new dataset on all revolts in South America from 1830 to 1929 show that the decline in revolts stemmed in large part from the expansion and professionalization of the region's militaries, which were driven by the export boom and the threat of interstate conflict. Nevertheless, not all types of rebellions declined precipitously during this period, as an original typology of revolts shows. Although the strengthening of the region's armed forces discouraged revolts by non-state actors, it did not significantly reduce rebellions from within the state apparatus, such as military coups.
摘要 十九世纪,南美洲内部叛乱不断,破坏了该地区经济和政治制度的稳定。然而,二十世纪初,整个地区的政治暴力水平急剧下降。现有学术界对这一历史性转变的关注少得令人吃惊,部分原因是缺乏有关叛乱的全面数据。对历史的叙述以及对 1830 年至 1929 年南美洲所有叛乱的全面新数据集的分析表明,叛乱的减少在很大程度上源于该地区军队的扩张和专业化,而军队的扩张和专业化是由出口繁荣和国家间冲突的威胁所驱动的。然而,正如最初的叛乱类型学所显示的那样,并非所有类型的叛乱在这一时期都急剧减少。虽然该地区武装力量的加强阻止了非国家行为者的叛乱,但并没有显著减少来自国家机器内部的叛乱,如军事政变。
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引用次数: 0
We All Fall Down: The Dismantling of the Warsaw Pact and the End of the Cold War in Eastern Europe 我们都倒下了:华沙条约组织的解体与东欧冷战的结束
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00477
Simon Miles
Abstract Using new evidence from Czech, German, Hungarian, Polish, and Romanian archives, a reconstruction of Eastern European diplomacy at the end of the Cold War shows that it was not just the superpowers that shaped events during this pivotal period: the non-Soviet members of the Warsaw Pact also had agency. From 1989 to 1991, these states recognized that the world was changing and that their relationship with the Soviet Union, codified in the Warsaw Pact politico-military alliance, would impede their success in the post–Cold War world. Eastern European policymakers resolved to destroy the Warsaw Pact that bound them to the Soviet Union, and they decided to align with Western Europe. They also sought to exclude the Soviet Union from the European security architecture, including the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe. They sought security and wanted to hedge against a hard-line takeover in the Soviet Union; but their primary aim was to reap the West's economic benefits.
摘要 利用捷克、德国、匈牙利、波兰和罗马尼亚档案中的新证据,对冷战结束时的东欧外交进行了重构,结果表明,在这一关键时期,不仅是超级大国左右着事件的发展:《华沙条约》的非苏维埃成员国也发挥着作用。从 1989 年到 1991 年,这些国家认识到,世界正在发生变化,它们与苏联的关系(编入《华沙条约》的政治军事同盟)将阻碍它们在冷战后世界取得成功。东欧决策者决心摧毁将他们与苏联捆绑在一起的《华沙条约》,并决定与西欧结盟。他们还试图将苏联排除在欧洲安全架构(包括欧洲安全与合作会议)之外。他们寻求安全,希望避免苏联的强硬派接管;但他们的主要目的是获取西方的经济利益。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Intervention and Internal Displacement: Urban Politics in Postwar Beirut 外国干预与国内流离失所:战后贝鲁特的城市政治
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00478
Amanda Rizkallah
Abstract Uneven democratization is a common yet poorly understood legacy of civil war. In the aftermath of the Lebanese Civil War (1975–1990), wartime processes of displacement interacted with Syria's intervention to transform local postwar political orders. In Beirut's suburbs, the bonds built between armed actors and displaced populations created opportunities for displaced people to extract responsiveness from local institutions, despite their vulnerability. But the power of displaced populations in their host community hinges on the fate of the locally dominant armed actor. If the armed actor is an ally of the intervening power, it can maintain political control over its strongholds, marginalizing traditional local elites while empowering its core constituents, displaced people. By contrast, if an armed actor is repressed by the intervening power, the ensuing power vacuum creates an opportunity for pluralistic party politics to emerge. Traditional prewar elites reassert their role in local political life, empowering their core constituents, the prewar residents. Drawing on dozens of in-depth interviews with key informants in the suburbs of postwar Beirut, the findings show how displacement transformed localities in ways that transcend religious identity. Over 80,000 people have been displaced from southern Lebanon because of fighting since October 7, 2023. If Hezbollah provides services and security to these displaced persons, the current conflict will strengthen Hezbollah's grip on the south of Lebanon when the displaced populations return, or further consolidate its influence in those localities in south Lebanon where displaced populations settle.
摘要 不均衡的民主化是内战遗留下来的一个普遍问题,但却鲜为人知。黎巴嫩内战(1975-1990 年)结束后,战时的流离失所过程与叙利亚的干预相互作用,改变了当地的战后政治秩序。在贝鲁特郊区,武装行动者与流离失所者之间建立的联系为流离失所者创造了机会,使他们能够从当地机构那里获得回应,尽管他们很脆弱。但是,流离失所者在收容社区的权力取决于当地占主导地位的武装人员的命运。如果武装行为体是干预国的盟友,它就能保持对其据点的政治控制,使传统的地方精英边缘化,同时增强其核心选民--流离失所者的权能。相比之下,如果武装分子被干预国镇压,随之而来的权力真空就为多元化政党政治的出现创造了机会。传统的战前精英会重新在当地政治生活中发挥作用,同时增强其核心选民--战前居民--的权能。通过对战后贝鲁特郊区主要信息提供者的数十次深入访谈,研究结果表明流离失所是如何以超越宗教身份的方式改变当地的。自 2023 年 10 月 7 日以来,黎巴嫩南部已有 8 万多人因战乱而流离失所。如果真主党为这些流离失所者提供服务和安全保障,那么当流离失所者返回时,当前的冲突将加强真主党对黎巴嫩南部的控制,或进一步巩固其在黎巴嫩南部流离失所者定居地区的影响力。
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引用次数: 0
The Peril of Peaking Powers: Economic Slowdowns and Implications for China's Next Decade 《大国达到顶峰的危险:经济放缓及其对中国未来十年的影响》
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00463
Michael Beckley
Abstract From ancient times to the present, rising powers have taken up arms to reorder the world. Yet such violent revisionism poses a puzzle: If a rising power is profiting from the existing order, why would it disrupt that progress with a reckless fit of expansion? One reason is slowing economic growth. Over the past 150 years, peaking powers, meaning rising powers whose economic booms have slowed but not yet stopped, have been the most dangerous kind of country. An extended period of rapid growth equipped them with the means to shake up the world, and then a protracted growth slowdown motivated them to move aggressively to try to rekindle their rise. Peaking power dynamics help explain some of the most consequential geopolitical events in modern history, including the surge of U.S. imperialism in the late nineteenth century, the outbreak of World War II, and Russia's 2014 aggression against Ukraine. These findings amend classic theories of great power conflict and have ominous implications for contemporary Chinese foreign policy.
从古至今,崛起的大国一直在拿起武器重塑世界秩序。然而,这种暴力的修正主义提出了一个难题:如果一个崛起的大国正在从现有秩序中获利,它为什么要用鲁莽的扩张来破坏这种进步?原因之一是经济增长放缓。在过去的150年里,经济增长放缓但尚未停止的新兴大国,即达到顶峰的大国,一直是最危险的一类国家。一段较长时期的快速增长使它们具备了撼动世界的手段,然后一段长期的增长放缓促使它们积极行动,试图重新点燃它们的崛起之火。权力巅峰的动态有助于解释现代历史上一些最重要的地缘政治事件,包括19世纪末美帝国主义的崛起、第二次世界大战的爆发以及2014年俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略。这些发现修正了经典的大国冲突理论,并对当代中国外交政策产生了不祥的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Collective Resilience: Deterring China's Weaponization of Economic Interdependence 集体弹性:阻止中国经济相互依赖武器化
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00465
V. Cha
Abstract Since the 2010s, China has used economic coercion against Western and Asian states to achieve territorial and political goals. China's leveraging of its market is a form of “predatory liberalism” that weaponizes the networks of interdependence created by globalization. The United States and other like-minded partners have mostly used piecemeal “de-risking” measures such as decoupling, supply chain resilience, reshoring, and trade diversion to reduce dependence on China and thereby minimize vulnerability to its economic coercion. But these practices do not stop the Chinese government's economic bullying. “Collective resilience” is a peer competition strategy designed to deter the Xi Jinping regime's economic predation. What informs this strategy is the understanding that interdependence, even asymmetric interdependence, is a two-way street. Original trade data show that the previous and current targets of economic coercion by the Xi Jinping regime export over $46.6 billion worth of goods to China on which it is more than 70 percent dependent as a proportion of its total imports of those goods. These target states could band together in a collective resilience alliance and practice economic deterrence by promising to retaliate against China's high-dependence trade should Beijing act against any one of the alliance members.
自2010年代以来,中国一直对西方和亚洲国家使用经济胁迫来实现领土和政治目标。中国对其市场的杠杆作用是一种“掠夺性自由主义”,它将全球化创造的相互依存网络武器化。美国和其他志同道合的合作伙伴大多采用零碎的“去风险”措施,如脱钩、供应链弹性、回流和贸易转移,以减少对中国的依赖,从而最大限度地减少对中国经济胁迫的脆弱性。但这些做法并没有阻止中国政府的经济欺凌。这一战略的核心是理解相互依赖,甚至是不对称的相互依赖,是一条双向的道路。这些目标国家可以联合起来组成一个集体弹性联盟,并通过承诺对中国高度依赖的贸易进行报复来实施经济威慑,如果北京对联盟中的任何一个成员采取行动。
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引用次数: 0
Bargaining with the Military: How Presidents Manage the Political Costs of Civilian Control 与军方讨价还价:总统如何管理文官控制的政治成本
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00468
A. Payne
Abstract In an era of increased politicization of the military, there are powerful disincentives for commanders-in-chief to challenge the preferences of the senior military leadership. Even though presidents may have the constitutional “right to be wrong,” they require considerable political capital to test that proposition. Dominant normative theories of civil-military relations focus on ideal-type scenarios that do not reflect the messy, inherently political character of elite decision-making. A case study of civil-military dynamics during the Iraq War identifies four decision-making strategies that George W. Bush and Barack Obama used to avoid incurring a domestic political penalty for being seen to go against the preferences of the uniformed military. Drawing on declassified documents and dozens of interviews with former administration officials and top-ranking military leaders, the findings indicate that both administrations used these strategies during key episodes of civil-military friction in the Iraq War (the 2007 surge and the troop drawdown that followed). Scholars and practitioners should focus on strengthening civilian and military leaders' capacity to navigate the politics of national security decision-making and reconsidering conventional understandings of the apolitical role of the military.
在军事日益政治化的时代,总司令挑战高级军事领导人的偏好存在强大的抑制因素。尽管总统可能拥有宪法赋予的“犯错的权利”,但他们需要相当大的政治资本来检验这一主张。军民关系的主流规范理论侧重于理想类型的场景,这些场景并不反映精英决策的混乱和固有的政治特征。对伊拉克战争期间军民关系动态的一个案例研究表明,乔治•w•布什(George W. Bush)和巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)采用了四种决策策略,以避免因被视为违背了军方的偏好而招致国内政治惩罚。根据解密文件和对数十名前政府官员和高级军事领导人的采访,研究结果表明,在伊拉克战争中军民摩擦的关键时期(2007年增兵和随后的撤军),两届政府都使用了这些策略。学者和实践者应该把重点放在加强文职和军事领导人驾驭国家安全决策政治的能力上,并重新考虑对军队非政治角色的传统理解。
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引用次数: 0
The Institutional Origins of Miscalculation in China's International Crises 中国国际危机中误判的制度根源
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00464
T. Jost
Abstract When is China prone to miscalculate in international crises? National security institutions—the rules shaping the flow of information between leaders and their diplomatic, defense, and intelligence bureaucracies—offer one important answer to this question. A theoretical framework differentiates between three institutional types: integrated, fragmented, and siloed. Integrated institutions reduce the risk of miscalculation both by building capacity to relay bureaucratic information to the leader, and by fostering a competitive dialogue between bureaucracies that improves the quality of information that they provide. In contrast, miscalculation is more likely under two types of pathological institutions. Fragmented institutions reduce capacity to relay bureaucratic information to leaders and encourage bureaucrats to manipulate information to conform with the leader's prior beliefs. Siloed institutions restrict information sharing between bureaucracies, which degrades the evaluation of information and encourages bureaucracies to manipulate information to suit their organizational interests. A medium-N analysis of China's international security crises from 1949 to 2012 demonstrates that national security institutions help to explain the majority of its crisis miscalculations. Case studies on the 1962 Nationalist invasion scare, the 1969 Sino-Soviet border conflict, and the 2001 EP-3 reconnaissance aircraft incident illustrate the mechanisms by which national security institutions shape the risk of miscalculation in international crises.
在国际危机中,中国什么时候容易误判?国家安全机构——决定领导人与其外交、国防和情报机构之间信息流动的规则——为这个问题提供了一个重要的答案。一个理论框架区分了三种制度类型:综合的、碎片化的和孤立的。综合机构通过建立向领导人传递官僚信息的能力,以及通过促进官僚机构之间的竞争性对话来提高其提供的信息的质量,从而减少误判的风险。相比之下,在两种类型的病理制度下更有可能出现误判。支离破碎的制度降低了向领导者传递官僚信息的能力,并鼓励官僚操纵信息以符合领导者的先前信念。孤立的制度限制了官僚机构之间的信息共享,这降低了对信息的评估,并鼓励官僚机构操纵信息以适应其组织利益。对1949年至2012年中国国际安全危机的中n分析表明,国家安全制度有助于解释其大多数危机误判。对1962年国民党入侵恐慌、1969年中苏边境冲突和2001年EP-3侦察机事件的案例研究,说明了国家安全机构在国际危机中形成误判风险的机制。
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引用次数: 1
Reviewers for Volume 47 第47卷的审稿人
IF 5 1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_x_00467
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引用次数: 0
Racialization and International Security 种族化与国际安全
1区 社会学 Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.1162/isec_a_00470
Richard W. Maass
Abstract Racialization—the processes that infuse social and political phenomena with racial identities and implications—is an assertion of power, a claim of purportedly inherent differences that has saturated modern diplomacy, order, and violence. Despite the field's consistent interest in power, international security studies in the United States largely omitted racial dynamics from decades of debates about international conflict and cooperation, nuclear proliferation, power transitions, unipolarity, civil wars, terrorism, international order, grand strategy, and other subjects. A new framework lays conceptual bedrock, links relevant literatures to major research agendas in international security, cultivates interdisciplinary dialogues, and charts promising paths to consider how overt and embedded racialization shape the study and practice of international security. A discussion of several research design challenges for integrating racialization into existing and new research agendas helps scholars reconsider how they approach questions of race and security. Beyond diversifying the professoriat itself, revealing and countering embedded biases are crucial to determine how alternative ideas have been marginalized, and, ultimately, to develop better theories.
种族化是一种赋予社会和政治现象以种族身份和含义的过程,它是一种对权力的主张,一种据称是固有差异的主张,这种差异已经渗透到现代外交、秩序和暴力中。尽管该领域一直对权力感兴趣,但美国的国际安全研究在几十年来关于国际冲突与合作、核扩散、权力转移、单极、内战、恐怖主义、国际秩序、大战略和其他主题的辩论中,在很大程度上忽略了种族动态。一个新的框架奠定了概念基础,将相关文献与国际安全的主要研究议程联系起来,培养跨学科对话,并为考虑显性和隐性种族化如何塑造国际安全的研究和实践绘制了有希望的路径。将种族化整合到现有和新的研究议程中的几个研究设计挑战的讨论有助于学者重新考虑他们如何处理种族和安全问题。除了使教授本身多样化之外,揭示和反击根深蒂固的偏见对于确定另类观点是如何被边缘化的,并最终发展出更好的理论至关重要。
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引用次数: 0
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International Security
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