The biasing effects of selection and attrition on estimating the mean

Abstract

Organizational and validation researchers often work with data that has been subjected to selection on the predictor and attrition on the criterion. These researchers often use the data observed under these conditions to estimate either the predictor or criterion's restricted population means. We show that the restricted means due to direct or indirect selection are a function of the population means plus the selection ratios. Thus, any difference between selected mean groups reflects the population difference plus the selection ratio difference. When there is also attrition on the criterion, the estimation of group differences becomes even more complicated. The effect of selection and attrition induces measurement bias when estimating the restricted population mean of either the predictor or criterion. A sample mean observed under selection and attrition does not estimate either the population mean or the restricted population mean. We propose several procedures under normality that yield unbiased estimates of the mean. The procedures focus on correcting the effects of selection and attrition. Each procedure was evaluated with a Monte Carlo simulation to ascertain its strengths and weaknesses. Given appropriate sample size and conditions, we show that these procedures yield unbiased estimators of the restricted and unrestricted population means for both predictor and criterion. We also show how our findings have implications for replicating selected group differences.