Forecasting the Costs for Adapting the Housing Stock to Changing Permafrost Conditions (the Case of Norilsk)

Abstract

The problem of predicting the socio-economic consequences of permafrost degradation due to climate change is an important area of modern scientific research. At the moment, there are no unified approaches and methods for assessing this type of natural risk, respectively, there is no reliable idea of the scale of possible consequences, which in turn is manifested in the poor elaboration of the issue in strategic planning documents for permafrost areas. The city of Norilsk (Krasnoyarsk krai) is an example of an Arctic city in Russia, located in the permafrost zone, where active work has begun on the housing stock renovation, including due to problems associated with the degradation of permafrost under the influence of anthropogenic and climatic factors. An analysis of legal documents related to the socioeconomic development of the city, renovation plans and documents aimed at solving the problem of replacing the deformed housing stock showed that the scale of measures does not fully correspond to the severity of the problem. A comparison of the key characteristics of the Norilsk housing stock, taking into account its current state and plans for transformation, with a long-term forecast of changes in engineering and cryological conditions until 2050, made it possible to estimate the total costs of adaptation, which can reach 1.6 trillion rubles in 2023 prices. In addition, a rating of Russian Arctic municipalities was compiled, based on the ratio of indicators characterizing internal adaptive capabilities to changing geocryological conditions and the amount of expected damage to the buildings and structures. It was found that, in general, the scale of the likely consequences significantly exceeds the available resources, and the most negative situation is already developing in the most depressed areas.