Research and application model of disaster risk optimization based on lightning data

Fengjiao Liu, Ming Xue, Defeng Xue, Yao Tang, Qiuyan He
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Abstract

Based on the application of lightning data, this paper conducted multifaceted researches to provide more reference ideas for selection of lightning risk assessment, early warning and division factor. Based on principles of weather science and mathematical statistics, this paper presents selection of lightning data factors, factor optimization, variable combination and risk classification method and makes a comparative analysis of lightning data factors and relative standards. The results show that the data processing and optimization of lightning factor has a significant indication of the lightning risk and combination factor of lightning factor is better than single factor and combination of four factors is the best and most stable. According to method in this paper, it is verified that the strong thunder factor which 25kA lightning current parameters choose according to GB50057 standard has better indication function to high risk level of lightning and distribution of lightning variable risk level and superposition diagram of lightning disaster of Huaihua are drawn to conclude that most areas where number of thunder disaster is concentrated are the areas which have higher risk level of lightning variables.
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基于雷电数据的灾害风险优化模型研究与应用
基于雷电数据的应用,进行多方面的研究,为雷电风险评估、预警和划分因子的选择提供更多的参考思路。基于气象学和数理统计原理,提出了雷电数据因子的选择、因子优化、变量组合和风险分类方法,并对雷电数据因子和相关标准进行了对比分析。结果表明,雷电因素的数据处理和优化对雷电风险有显著指示作用,雷电因素组合因素优于单一因素,四因素组合因素效果最好,最稳定。根据本文方法验证了根据GB50057标准选取的25kA雷电电流参数所选取的强雷因子对雷电的高风险等级具有较好的指示作用,并绘制了怀化市雷电变量风险等级分布和雷电灾害叠加图,得出雷电灾害数量集中的地区多为雷电变量风险等级较高的地区。
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