{"title":"The co-circulation of two infectious diseases and the impact of vaccination against one of them","authors":"G.F. Puga , L.H.A. Monteiro","doi":"10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100941","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>An epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is proposed to investigate the dynamics of two co-circulating infections. In the model, one of these two diseases compromises the immune response to future infections; however, there is vaccine against this immunosuppressive disease. The goal is to evaluate the impact of the vaccination coverage on the prevalence and on the cumulative deaths associated with both contagious diseases. The performed numerical simulations highlight the importance of vaccination on decreasing morbidity and mortality. The results are discussed from a public health standpoint, by taking into account outbreaks of measles and COVID-19.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":50559,"journal":{"name":"Ecological Complexity","volume":"47 ","pages":"Article 100941"},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2021-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1016/j.ecocom.2021.100941","citationCount":"2","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Ecological Complexity","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1476945X21000349","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Abstract
An epidemiological model based on probabilistic cellular automaton is proposed to investigate the dynamics of two co-circulating infections. In the model, one of these two diseases compromises the immune response to future infections; however, there is vaccine against this immunosuppressive disease. The goal is to evaluate the impact of the vaccination coverage on the prevalence and on the cumulative deaths associated with both contagious diseases. The performed numerical simulations highlight the importance of vaccination on decreasing morbidity and mortality. The results are discussed from a public health standpoint, by taking into account outbreaks of measles and COVID-19.
期刊介绍：
Ecological Complexity is an international journal devoted to the publication of high quality, peer-reviewed articles on all aspects of biocomplexity in the environment, theoretical ecology, and special issues on topics of current interest. The scope of the journal is wide and interdisciplinary with an integrated and quantitative approach. The journal particularly encourages submission of papers that integrate natural and social processes at appropriately broad spatio-temporal scales.
Ecological Complexity will publish research into the following areas:
• All aspects of biocomplexity in the environment and theoretical ecology
• Ecosystems and biospheres as complex adaptive systems
• Self-organization of spatially extended ecosystems
• Emergent properties and structures of complex ecosystems
• Ecological pattern formation in space and time
• The role of biophysical constraints and evolutionary attractors on species assemblages
• Ecological scaling (scale invariance, scale covariance and across scale dynamics), allometry, and hierarchy theory
• Ecological topology and networks
• Studies towards an ecology of complex systems
• Complex systems approaches for the study of dynamic human-environment interactions
• Using knowledge of nonlinear phenomena to better guide policy development for adaptation strategies and mitigation to environmental change
• New tools and methods for studying ecological complexity
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