Construction and Validation of a Predictive Model for the Risk of Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia in Elderly ICU Patients.

IF 2.1 4区 医学 Q3 RESPIRATORY SYSTEM Canadian respiratory journal Pub Date : 2023-01-12 eCollection Date: 2023-01-01 DOI:10.1155/2023/7665184
Shuhua Li, Linping Shang, Lirong Yuan, Wei Li, Hongyun Kang, Wenting Zhao, Xiaojuan Han, Danxia Su
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Abstract

Background: Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is among the most important hospital-acquired infections in an intensive-care unit setting. However, clinical practice lacks effective theoretical tools for preventing VAP in the elderly.

Aim: To describe the independent factors associated with VAP in elderly intensive-care unit (ICU) patients on mechanical ventilation (MV) and to construct a risk prediction model.

Methods: A total of 1851 elderly patients with MV in ICUs from January 2015 to September 2019 were selected from 12 tertiary hospitals. Study subjects were divided into a model group (n = 1219) and a validation group (n = 632). Two groups of patients were divided into a VAP group and a non-VAP group and compared. Univariate and logistic regression analyses were used to explore influencing factors for VAP in elderly ICU patients with MV, establish a risk prediction model, and draw a nomogram. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test to evaluate the predictive effect of the model. Findings regarding the length of ICU stay, surgery, C-reactive protein (CRP), and the number of reintubations were independent risk factors for VAP in elderly ICU patients with MV. Predictive-model verification results showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of VAP risk after MV in the modeling and verification groups was 0.859 and 0.813 (P < 0.001), respectively, while P values for the Hosmer-Lemeshow test in these two groups were 0.365 and 0.485, respectively.

Conclusion: The model could effectively predict the occurrence of VAP in elderly patients with MV in ICUs. This study is a retrospective study, so it has not been registered as a clinical study.

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老年ICU患者呼吸机相关性肺炎风险预测模型的构建与验证
背景:呼吸机相关性肺炎(VAP)是重症监护病房最重要的医院获得性感染之一。然而,临床实践缺乏有效的预防老年VAP的理论工具。目的:探讨老年重症监护室(ICU)机械通气(MV)患者发生VAP的独立影响因素,并建立风险预测模型。方法:选取2015年1月至2019年9月12家三级医院icu中老年MV患者1851例。研究对象分为模型组(n = 1219)和验证组(n = 632)。将两组患者分为VAP组和非VAP组进行比较。采用单因素和logistic回归分析,探讨老年ICU合并MV患者VAP的影响因素,建立风险预测模型,绘制nomogram。我们使用受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUROC)和Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验来评估模型的预测效果。ICU住院时间、手术、c反应蛋白(CRP)、再插管次数是老年ICU合并MV患者发生VAP的独立危险因素。预测模型验证结果显示,建模组和验证组MV后VAP风险的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.859和0.813 (P < 0.001),两组Hosmer-Lemeshow检验的P值分别为0.365和0.485。结论:该模型可有效预测icu中老年MV患者VAP的发生。本研究为回顾性研究,尚未注册为临床研究。
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来源期刊
Canadian respiratory journal
Canadian respiratory journal 医学-呼吸系统
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
0.00%
发文量
61
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Canadian Respiratory Journal is a peer-reviewed, Open Access journal that aims to provide a multidisciplinary forum for research in all areas of respiratory medicine. The journal publishes original research articles, review articles, and clinical studies related to asthma, allergy, COPD, non-invasive ventilation, therapeutic intervention, lung cancer, airway and lung infections, as well as any other respiratory diseases.
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