Beware of Bureaucrats: A commentary on Lustick and Tetlock (2021)

Abstract

The article by Lustick and Tetlock (2021) impressively embeds the need for reliable foresight in concrete historical events and, based on this, makes a strong appeal for significantly improved foresight and decisionmaking groundwork, through the use of theoryguided computer simulations such as the mentioned Virtual Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Tool (VSAFT). It goes without saying that theoryguided computer simulations improve the status quo of foresight, which is why they should complement the method portfolio of any strategist, risk manager, analyst, or policy maker. However, it is doubtful whether future pandemics, terrorist attacks, international conflicts, or even social upheavals can be regularly anticipated and, above all, whether appropriate preventive measures can be implemented consistently or even only to a predominant extent.