Modelling electric vehicles uptake on the Greek islands

Abstract

For decades, the Greek islands have been facing challenges in terms of quality of power supply, increased carbon dioxide equivalent (CO_2eq) emissions, and costs due to their reliance on oil-fired generation subsidised by the Greek state. In light of the recent reforms to decarbonise the islands' region while enhancing their local grids, this study investigates the impact of electromobility considering an autonomous electricity system supported by storage versus an interconnected one. Two Electric Vehicles (EVs) deployment scenarios coupled with several charging strategies have been modelled using the PLEXOS energy systems model. The results highlight that the Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) scenarios demonstrate the most evident benefits for the islands' electricity systems, performing adequately under both the Autonomous and Interconnection scenarios concerning the economic and environmental impact. Such scenarios have the potential to reduce emissions by 8.5% while dropping costs up to 20% by 2040, when combined with the required renewables expansion plan. From the security of supply perspective, the results demonstrate improvements under the interconnected context accompanied by thermal generation restrictions without however eliminating power shortages recorded already in a non-EV case. The analysis also showcases an escalated impact on power shortages and curtailments during the maximum week, particularly when combined with an ambitious EV deployment. Yet, V2G may increase renewables share up to 7% in 2040. In this context, EVs could mobilise the additional deployment of 600 MW renewables by 2040 if interconnections with the mainland are realised. Assuming islands continue operating as autonomous electricity systems, the additional capacity to accommodate may reach 720 MW.