Renewable and Sustainable Energy Transition最新文献

Over the past few decades, there has been significant development in actions aimed at global energy transition, with the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The energy sector plays a significant role in this endeavor, contributing 76% of the world's total emissions. Considering electrification as an alternative promotes the deployment of technologies that use renewable sources, such as wind energy in coastal and offshore areas. In Colombia, wind energy alone has an accumulated technical potential of approximately 82 GW, mainly concentrated along the northeastern coast. Exploiting this technology enables the development of the national electrical system, reducing dependence on hydroelectric generation, strengthening the system against climate seasonality by ensuring supply security, environmental sustainability, and equitable energy access. Supported by system dynamics modeling, this paper presents four scenarios that explore possible futures for wind capacity deployment in Colombia between 2020 and 2050. It considers uncertainties in political and economic domains, as well as crucial national factors such as social acceptance, supply chain development, and transmission infrastructure. Favorable alignment of these factors towards wind diffusion could lead to nearly 29 GW of installed capacity by 2050, representing 40% of the projected total capacity of the electricity sector.

Combined cycle (CC) plants are expected to play an important role in balancing generation of heat and electricity from non-dispatchable renewable energy sources. In this work, we study different retrofit options for using hydrogen in CC plants to reduce the plant’s CO₂ emissions. These options are: direct combustion in the gas turbine, supplementary firing in the heat recovery boiler (duct burner), and oxy-fuel combustion of hydrogen for direct steam production.

Therefore, we first simulate the performance of an exemplary CC plant in a detailed non-linear process model. Second, we fit a surrogate, mixed-integer-linear model that can optimize the plant operation within a reasonable computation time over a long time frame (one year, with hourly resolution). This surrogate model allows for an in-depth analysis of hydrogen combustion retrofits in CC plants, assessing both profitability and environmental impacts. The findings suggest that direct combustion of hydrogen in the gas turbine becomes economically viable only when hydrogen is cheaper than natural gas. Although a duct burner fired by natural gas can enhance the plant’s profitability, it also increases the specific carbon emissions. Burning hydrogen in a duct burner, however, is not cost-effective. Retrofitting the steam cycle of the plant with an oxy-fuel hydrogen burner, however, can improve both profitability and CO₂ emissions of electricity and steam generation.

Energy system modeling supports the identification of the optimal technology mix to achieve decarbonization targets across multiple sectors. Especially when sector coupling is considered for future technology landscapes, the large solution space leads to a complex optimization problem in terms of computational feasibility and data requirements. The authors identify a research gap in developing an open-source model structure with consideration of the relevant future technologies of power, heat, other conversions, transport, and industry defined with a new level of detail in a sector-coupled energy world and in including detailed insights into the accompanying definition process. A strong focus is set on the transparency and reproducibility of the provided open-source structure and its flexible and consistent application to different framework families to foster the ease of applicability of this work. The paper first gives a detailed description of the model base, including an overview of the model frame definition process, the core adjustments to model sector coupling appropriately, and the measures to make the resulting problem computationally feasible. The core result of this work is the presentation of a detailed model structure to model sector coupling for a German energy system, yielding approximately 2000 processes that characterize the heterogeneous and technology-open landscape of existing and possible future technologies across relevant energy sectors. This supports energy system modelers in understanding and reproducing energy system models based on open-source data and thereby tries to accelerate the research on sector coupling and its role in the energy transition.

This study applies the concept of regret in decision-making under uncertainty to an energy system optimization model to identify optimal robust and stochastic solutions amongst several design options. The approach is demonstrated on the case study of Accra, Ghana, considering uncertainties pertinent to the city, particularly under climate change. The evaluated uncertainty scenarios consider volatile fossil fuel supply, reduced hydropower generation, rising demand due to climate change-driven rural-urban migration and global warming, unplanned power outages due to increasing natural disasters, and currency depreciation. The evaluated systems include Pareto-optimal system solutions typically under consideration by planners, which balance costs and CO₂ emissions. The regret performance is evaluated for each system subject to each uncertainty scenario. A near-CO₂-minimized system is the optimal robust and stochastic least-regret solution. Two factors drive this result: (1) a diverse technology set, which provides generation and cross-sectoral flexibility for adaptation under uncertainty, and (2) effectively balancing rising investment and operation costs with decreasing unmet demand costs. The demonstrated method provides energy planners and policymakers with a pragmatic, effective and fast approach, which offers new insights into long-term energy system planning to improve resilience under uncertainty, supporting the aims of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals 7 and 11.

Accessible and affordable energy services are a prerequisite for socioeconomic growth and poverty reduction. Yet it is estimated that 600 million people in sub-Saharan Africa will not have access to electricity in 2030. Recent research suggests that universal access to electricity will be achieved through a mix of centralized and decentralized systems and that the diffusion of these technologies is a socio-technical process involving multiple actors. These actors include firms, networks, energy users, and government agencies that interact within a political landscape to deliver innovation within energy service systems. Thus, factors related to the political economy can impact the process of innovation and warrant analysis. This study aims to provide an analysis of the political economy factors that can influence the emergence of mini grid electricity development in the African context exemplified in Kenya as a case study. The study uses the Technology Innovation Systems (TIS) lens as an analytical framework to provide a critical analysis of how political economy factors have influenced the development of mini grid electricity in Kenya. The result shows that despite the presence of some favorable conditions for innovation, political economy factors significantly impede the deployment of mini grids in Kenya. Power and vested interests have created negative competition between public and private developers, limiting knowledge and information diffusion between actors and stalling mini grid developments where they are most needed.

The transition to a low-carbon economy can create new job opportunities but may cause job displacement in some sectors that heavily rely on fossil fuels. In order to gain a balanced appraisal in understanding the broader consequences of climate policies, this paper analyses the impact of the EU Fit for 55 with carbon border adjustment on EU employment at the regional level. Research findings prove that certain regions are disproportionately affected by job losses, indicating that the acceptability of these targeted policies should address these potential inequalities. The most exposed are regions with vast energy mining industries, however implementing CBAM reduces the exposure of regions with energy-intensive industries. Some regions in Greece, Spain and Italy are still very vulnerable post-CBAM implementation, suggesting high sensitivity of job losses and low capability of these regions to deal with energy transition. Accordingly, ensuring effective support for these vulnerable regions is critical to enhancing public acceptance and further cooperation for the EU climate commitment and a more well-managed transition to a low-carbon economy.

While carbon dioxide removal is indispensable in net-zero climate policy, incentives to deploy removals are limited. Swedish public support to biochar is one exception. This paper draws on the Swedish case to explore expectations put on biochar and the significance of public support for fulfilling these expectations. The analysis shows that biochar is expected to contribute to several environmental objectives. However, while biochar producers and users voice expectations on strengthening the multifunctionality of landscapes, e.g., improved ecosystem resilience and reduced nutrient run-off, the authorities rather narrowly direct attention to the stability of biochar as a carbon storage. Nevertheless, public support is contributing to a small but important protective space for biochar development through three channels: First, through investment grants, which are crucial for the emerging Swedish biochar production capacity. Second, through demand-pull created by municipalities that specify high environmental safeguards, which favours domestic production over import. Third, indirectly through support of production facilities that enable intermediary activities for gathering and sharing knowledge. However, while recent changes to EU state aid regulation may be a game-changer, EU has until now acted as a barrier to support to carbon dioxide removal. This socio-technical regime resistance, combined with a lack of jointly articulated expectations on biochar, appear to have been preventing deployment on more significant scale.

India is aiming at achieving a major shift in energy production and provision from a fossil fuel-based economy to one focussing on clean energy. As a financially constrained context, the move to the use of renewable energy is happening also through foreign investment and centres mostly on large-scale solar rollouts across the country. Analyses of such initiatives disclose uneven distribution of the benefits and challenges across and within adjacent communities, which particularly affect women and girls due to their gendered roles and responsibilities. This perspective reviews solar energy initiatives focusing on women's engagement run by NGOs and partially funded by the Indian central government, and gendered analyses of large-scale solar energy rollouts, through a feminist lens. A feminist approach to the analysis of large-scale solar rollouts discloses asymmetric power relations and energy inequalities against women and girls, which often reproduce those linked to fossil fuel. In contrast to this scenario, NGOs have a long-standing tradition in India of addressing socio-economic issues where governments failed to do so. Yet, available evidence of the impacts of their engagement in small-scale energy projects in India is quite new. Grassroots solar energy innovations, by being shaped by local communities, have the potential to challenge constraints on a just transitions while promoting greater gender equality and responding to communities’ energy needs.

Remote islands, comprising over one-sixth of the Earth's surface area and home to approximately 9% of the global population, face formidable challenges in securing affordable, sustainable, and reliable energy. This paper presents a pioneering investigation into Mornington Island's transition from diesel reliance to renewable energy predominance over the next four decades. By demonstrating the tangible benefits of renewable energy implementation on Mornington Island, this research provides compelling simulated evidence that blending traditional and renewable energy sources can revolutionize energy provision for small island communities. Employing hybrid Wind-Solar renewable energy systems bolstered by an effective battery storage system (ESS), this innovative approach ensures a seamless shift to renewable energy, resilient against seasonal variations and extreme weather events such as cyclones. Our analysis, conducted through a tech-economic model simulating each 5% increment of renewable energy penetration, reveals that renewable energy outperforms traditional diesel generation in terms of affordability over a 40-year operational span. Specifically, a 95% renewable energy penetration yields the lowest levelized energy cost ($162.2/MWh), resulting in a remarkable $8.54 million reduction in diesel costs. A 5% diesel component secures annual energy supply, bridging the gap during periods of seasonal renewable energy variability and extreme cyclonic weather. While achieving 100% renewable energy generation is financially feasible, challenges arise in scaling battery capacity to stabilize energy supply during cyclone seasons. Moreover, our carbon accounting model indicates that although the construction of renewable energy infrastructure entails some indirect (Scope 3) carbon emissions, a 95% renewable penetration mitigates emissions by 90% compared to traditional diesel generation, amounting to a reduction of 39.17 kilotons over the 40-year period. This comprehensive study provides policymakers with invaluable insights, fostering a holistic understanding of the financial, technical, environmental, and political dimensions inherent in island energy transitions.