Recent Advances in Research and Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Track, Intensity, and Structure at Landfall

Abstract

This review prepared for the fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) summarizes the most recent (2015-2017) theoretical and practical knowledge in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) track, intensity, and structure rapid changes at or near landfall. Although the focus of IWTCLP-IV was on landfall, this summary necessarily embraces the characteristics of storms during their course over the ocean prior to and leading up to landfall. In the past few years, extremely valuable observational datasets have been collected for TC forecasting guidance and research studies using both aircraft reconnaissance and new geostationary or low-earth orbiting satellites at high temporal and spatial resolution. Track deflections for systems near complex topography such as that of Taiwan and La Réunion have been further investigated, and advanced numerical models with high spatial resolution necessary to predict the interaction of the TC circulation with steep island topography have been developed. An analog technique has been designed to meet the need for longer range landfall intensity forecast guidance that will provide more time for emergency preparedness. Probabilistic track and intensity forecasts have also been developed to better communicate on forecast uncertainty. Operational practices of several TC forecast centers are described herein and some challenges regarding forecasts and warnings for TCs making landfall are identified. This review concludes with insights from both researchers and forecasters regarding future directions to improve predictions of TC track, intensity, and structure at landfall.