Effects of recent minimum wage policies in California and nationwide: Results from a pre-specified analysis plan

IF 2.4 3区 管理学 Q2 INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR Industrial Relations Pub Date : 2021-12-06 DOI:10.1111/irel.12297
David Neumark, Maysen Yen
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Abstract

We analyze the impacts of recent city minimum wage increases in California and nationwide, following a pre-analysis plan (PAP) registered prior to the release of data covering two years of minimum wage increases. For California cities, we find a hint of negative employment effects. Nationally, we find some evidence of disemployment effects for teens, but not young adults or high school dropouts. City-specific analyses provide limited evidence of adverse effects on the share low-income, but the pooled city analysis does not; the national analysis generally finds no impact on the share low-income, except for reductions in the share near-poor, although that may at least partly reflect prior trends. All told, we view the results as providing neither strong evidence of substantial adverse effects of city minimum wages, nor strong evidence of substantial beneficial effects.

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最近最低工资政策在加州和全国的影响:来自预先指定的分析计划的结果
我们根据一项预分析计划(PAP),在两年最低工资增长数据发布之前注册,分析了加州和全国最近城市最低工资增长的影响。对于加州城市,我们发现了负面就业效应的迹象。在全国范围内,我们发现一些证据表明失业对青少年有影响,但对年轻人或高中辍学生没有影响。特定城市的分析提供了有限的证据,证明了对低收入者份额的不利影响,但汇总城市的分析没有;国家分析总体上发现,除了近贫困人口的比例减少外,低收入人口的比例没有受到影响,尽管这可能至少部分反映了之前的趋势。总而言之,我们认为这些结果既没有提供有力的证据表明城市最低工资有实质性的不利影响,也没有提供有力的证据表明城市最低工资有实质性的有益影响。
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来源期刊
Industrial Relations
Industrial Relations INDUSTRIAL RELATIONS & LABOR-
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
8.70%
发文量
25
期刊介绍: Corporate restructuring and downsizing, the changing employment relationship in union and nonunion settings, high performance work systems, the demographics of the workplace, and the impact of globalization on national labor markets - these are just some of the major issues covered in Industrial Relations. The journal offers an invaluable international perspective on economic, sociological, psychological, political, historical, and legal developments in labor and employment. It is the only journal in its field with this multidisciplinary focus on the implications of change for business, government and workers.
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