Understanding the role of land-use emissions in achieving the Brazilian Nationally Determined Contribution to mitigate climate change

Abstract

Brazil has experienced huge areas of forest loss over recent decades with an estimated removal of 80 MHa of natural forest since 1990. Deforestation creates substantial greenhouse emissions that have historically dominated all other sectors. Effective governance has reduced deforestation and net land-use emissions have fallen by 74% since the mid-2000s. Anthropogenic carbon removal from secondary forest regrowth and protected areas has increased by 62%, which has helped drive the reduction in net emissions, offsetting gross emissions which have fallen by 44%. Major Brazilian biomes, such as the Atlantic Forest are net-sinks and the Amazon was near net-zero in 2010. Deforestation has increased over the last 10-years and now stands at a decadal high in the Amazon region. These increases in deforestation put Brazil at risk of missing its original National Determined Contribution; however, the recent revision has substantially increased the 2005 baseline and therefore the overall target. Carbon removals in the forest sector play an increasingly important role in reducing emissions and achieving the NDC. The Brazilian target of achieving 12 MHa of reforestation and restoration has the potential to further offset emissions through enhanced regrowth. However, the natural carbon sinks of Brazil are weakening. The Amazon forest is the single largest Brazilian biome for natural carbon uptake but when combined with land-use emissions has seen a net loss over the last 30 years. The natural sink remains large, but ecosystem resilience is declining driven by global and local climate change linked to rising international emissions and changing circulation patterns associated with local deforestation and degradation. These combine to make realizing the huge potential for carbon removal more challenging. It remains evident that forest protection and avoided degradation and disturbance is the best way to mitigate emissions and reduce climate impacts.