The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth

IF 2.6 3区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS Journal of the Japanese and International Economies Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI:10.1016/j.jjie.2023.101258
Joseph E. Gagnon , Steven B. Kamin , John Kearns
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引用次数: 8

Abstract

This paper describes one of the first attempts to gauge the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global trajectory of real GDP over the course of 2020 and 2021. It is also among the first efforts to distinguish between the role of domestic variables and global trade in transmitting the economic effects of COVID-19. We estimate panel data regressions of the quarterly growth in real GDP on pandemic variables for 90 countries over the period 2020 Q1 through 2021 Q4. We find that readings on the number of COVID-19 deaths had a very small effect in our aggregate sample. On the other hand, changes in the stringency of the lockdown measures taken by governments to restrict the spread of the virus were an important influence on GDP. The economic effects of the pandemic differed between rich and poor countries: COVID-19 deaths exerted a somewhat greater drag on GDP in advanced economies, although this difference was not statistically significant, whereas lockdown restrictions were more injurious to economic activity in emerging and developing economies. In addition to these domestic pandemic effects, global trade represented a significant channel through which the economic effects of the pandemic spilled across national borders. This finding underscores how globalization makes each country vulnerable not only to medical contagion from the COVID-19 pandemic, but to economic contagion as well.

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COVID-19大流行对全球GDP增长的影响
本文描述了衡量新冠肺炎疫情对2020年和2021年全球实际GDP轨迹的影响的首次尝试之一。这也是区分国内变量和全球贸易在传递新冠肺炎经济影响方面的作用的首批努力之一。我们估计了2020年第一季度至2021年第四季度期间90个国家实际GDP季度增长对疫情变量的面板数据回归。我们发现,新冠肺炎死亡人数的读数对我们的总样本的影响非常小。另一方面,各国政府为限制病毒传播而采取的封锁措施的严格程度的变化对GDP产生了重要影响。疫情对经济的影响在富国和穷国之间有所不同:新冠肺炎死亡对发达经济体的GDP造成了更大的拖累,尽管这一差异在统计上并不显著,而封锁限制对新兴经济体和发展中经济体的经济活动更为不利。除了这些国内疫情影响外,全球贸易是疫情经济影响跨越国界的重要渠道。这一发现突显了全球化如何使每个国家不仅容易受到新冠肺炎疫情的医疗传染,而且也容易受到经济传染。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.10
自引率
6.90%
发文量
36
期刊介绍: The Journal of the Japanese and International Economies publishes original reports of research devoted to academic analyses of the Japanese economy and its interdependence on other national economies. The Journal also features articles that present related theoretical, empirical, and comparative analyses with their policy implications. Book reviews are also published.
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