Journal of the Japanese and International Economies最新文献

In July 2019, the Japanese government announced export controls to South Korea of three chemical inputs essential in semiconductor production. This paper investigates the short- to middle-run effect of the Japan–Korea export controls on the trade patterns of the restricted and other related products of the semiconductor industry. The results show that the export controls caused a large decline in Japanese exports to South Korea of one of the three restricted inputs, hydrogen fluoride, but not in the other two restricted inputs, photoresist and fluorinated polyimide. Second, South Korea reallocated the sourcing of the restricted chemical inputs from Japan to other economies such as Belgium, the U.S., and Taiwan. Third, there was negative spillover effect on the South Korean imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipments, which is used complementarily with the restricted inputs in the semiconductor production. These results suggest a potential role of export controls in sourcing patterns and production relocation in the semiconductor industry.

A characteristic that differentiates vaccination from other health behaviors is that it is a public good. By the nature of a public good, negative peer effects are expected when determining vaccination behavior for free-rider incentives. This study empirically analyzes whether the surrounding vaccination status in a community influences individual vaccination behavior using administrative data on influenza vaccination for all the older people within a city of Japan. We first employ fixed effect analysis with a lagged dependent variable. We then examine how vaccination behavior changes in the event of the loss of a cohabitant and how this effect interacts with the community peer effect. Our estimation results confirm positive peer effects: the higher the community's vaccination rate, the more the raising effect of the individual's vaccination rate.

We develop high-frequency indices to measure sales in service industries and production in the manufacturing sector using GPS mobility data from mobile applications. First, by utilizing the point of interest data, we develop indicators to capture sales in amusement parks, shopping centers, and food services. Second, we construct indicators for nowcasting production based on the foot traffic in factory areas that are identified by using the Economic Census and mobility patterns. We find that the mobility data allow us to nowcast sales in the service sectors and have the potential to be used to nowcast the production in labor-intensive industries.

In this paper we examine the driving forces of fluctuations in wage growth of full-time workers in Japan, taking into account the heterogeneity of wage structures among the workers and using micro data including those from the Basic Survey on Wage Structure. To this end, we first divide full-time workers into two classes with distinct wage structures, based on a finite mixture model estimated using various characteristics of the workers and the firms they work for. We find that the two classes correspond to what previous studies have called an "internal labor market," where labor is reallocated within firms and wages follow a seniority-based system under long-term employment practices, and an "external labor market," where labor moves across firms and wages are mainly determined by supply and demand factors in the market. We next analyze the effects of economic factors on individual full-time workers' wage growth rates. We show that in the internal labor market, neither labor market conditions at the industry and firm-size level nor the output gap at the macro level have influenced the wage growth rates in recent years at least until 2021, while higher potential growth has increased them. By contrast, in the external and the overall labor markets for full-time workers, improvements in labor market conditions and the output gap have accelerated the wage growth rates, even in recent years.

This paper examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of the child benefit, using a general equilibrium overlapping generations model incorporating fertility choices. The model is calibrated to Japan and produces the benefit elasticity of fertility in line with the empirical estimates. Expanding the per-child payment leads to welfare gains for future generations in the long-run equilibrium. Notably, the long-run gains extend to individuals who are childless throughout their lives and do not receive child benefits. Higher fertility rates facilitated by the expansion and the resulting demographic change account for the results via several channels. However, reaching the new equilibrium takes approximately 100 years as the demographic change necessitates sufficient transition periods. The accrual of welfare gains is thus gradual and takes a long time.

This study investigates the causal effect of school vouchers on high school dropout behavior. In 2010, the Japanese government began offering free tuition for public high schools and financial support for students attending private high schools in response to the international movement toward free education and dramatic changes in the government. Since then, approximately half of all prefectures have made private high schools tuition free by 2019 under certain income restrictions. We use this variation to examine the preventive effect of the free tuition policy on student dropout behaviors. By analyzing prefecture-level panel data and performing difference-in-differences analysis, this study finds that the policy is effective in reducing dropouts. However, we find no statistically significant change in the college enrollment and employment rates of high school graduates before and after policy implementation.

This study explores the effect of bequests on wealth inequality in Japan. We construct a heterogeneous life cycle model incorporating the transmission of physical and human capital from parents to their children, particularly bequests transfer and the positive correlation of productivity between them. Our model generates more realistic wealth dispersion in Japan compared to a canonical life cycle model which does not include such capital links. The bequest motives, that is, the desire to leave bequests, increase savings in old age. However, the expectation of receiving bequests in the future leads to a decline in savings when young. Moreover, bequests increase lifetime income, inducing wealth accumulation for achieving more consumption over the life cycle.

This study investigates the effects of heterogenous fiscal policies on Japan's labor market amidst increasing national debt and economic downturns. We develop a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model incorporating labor market search friction, staggered wage negotiation, price stickiness and productive government employment. This model is used to compare the impacts of multiple fiscal policies—including government employment spendings, direct government expenditures, and tax cuts—on employment. The model, estimated with macroeconomic data of Japan spanning 1985 to 2019, offers a detailed look at how fiscal policies influence employment dynamics.

Our analysis shows that increasing employment within the government sector significantly lowers unemployment rates, with a long-term unemployment reduction effect (multiplier) of −0.4. Collectively, all fiscal policies contribute to 23.96 % of the employment rate fluctuations, with government employment policies playing a dominant role, accounting for 8.55 % of these variations. This underscores the significant stabilizing effect of government employment policies in the labor market and their capacity to boost private sector employment through enhanced household income and increased private sector productivity. This research not only sheds light on the critical role of public sector interventions during economic downturns but also enhances our understanding of the effectiveness of Japan's fiscal policies.

Recent advances in AI represent improvements in prediction. We examine how decision-making and risk management strategies change when prediction improves. The adoption of AI may cause substitution away from risk management activities used when rules are applied (rules require always taking the same action), instead allowing for decision-making (choosing actions based on the predicted state). We provide a formal model evaluating the impact of AI and how risk management, stakes, and interrelated tasks affect AI adoption. The broad conclusion is that AI adoption can be stymied by existing processes designed to address uncertainty. In particular, many processes are designed to enable coordinated decision-making among different organizational actors. AI can make coordination even more challenging. However, when the cost of changing such processes falls, then the returns from AI adoption increase.