Journal of the Japanese and International Economies最新文献

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What did the Bank of Japan do under the yield curve control policy?

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2025-02-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101352

Shigenori Shiratsuka

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) recent experience in implementing the yield curve control (YCC) in the Japanese Government Bond (JGB) market. The YCC policy started in September 2016 with targets on two interest rates with different maturities: overnight policy interest rates at -0.1% and the longer-term 10-year JGB yields at zero percent, with a fixed but adjustable fluctuation allowance range. The YCC policy was highly effective in stabilizing interest rates at low levels, from short to long term, at least up to early 2022. This paper addresses the question of what the BOJ did under the YCC policy through the lens of the yield curve dynamics in the JGB and overnight index swap (OIS) markets. Empirical evidence demonstrates two points. First, the BOJ had very limited policy space to extract monetary easing effects by manipulating the yield curve at the introduction of the YCC policy. Second, the BOJ took the seemingly aggressive but actually reactive actions of outright JGB purchases to counter market pressures on the YCC cap. These findings indicate that the BOJ introduced a sustainable monetary policy framework of the YCC policy with the intention of shifting its focus to maintaining an extremely low interest rate environment for as long as necessary.

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引用次数: 0

Position in global value chains, trade duration, and firm survival: Empirical evidence from China

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2025-02-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2025.101353

Qizhong Yang , Tomohiko Inui

The fragmentation of production in global value chains (GVCs) has become an important trend in international trade, where trading firms are facing a competitive global market. We use matched firm-level manufacturing survey and customs data to examine how the position of Chinese firms in the GVC affects the probability of trade duration and firm survival in the market. The results show that firms with higher upstreamness can more easily continue their current trade activities compared to firms located in less upstream positions. The subsequent estimation of the effect of the firm's GVC position on the probability of firm survival implies that a more upstream position in the GVC is beneficial for a firm's survival in both domestic and international markets. These findings show that participation in GVCs is not the only important determinant of firm performance, but positioning in GVCs also matters.

引用次数: 0

Aggregate implications of changing industrial trends in Japan

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2025-01-04 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101351

Toyoichiro Shirota , Satoshi Tsuchida

This study examines the extent to which the long-term declining trend in Japan’s GDP growth rate is attributable to factors common to all the industries or those specific to individual industries. By applying Japan’s 1958–2019 data to a multi-industry network model, we obtained the following results. First, common factors explain approximately 60% of the variation in Japan’s long-term GDP growth rate. This result contrasts to that in the US: common factors explain only around 20% of the secular trend in US GDP growth. Second, however, the impact of industry-specific factors is non-negligible. In particular, machinery-industry-specific factors explain much of the low growth in the past 20 years. Finally, the spillover effects from individual industries to the aggregate GDP depend on the role of each industry in the production and investment networks, and in Japan, the influence of investment-related industries such as the machinery industries and construction is substantial.

引用次数: 0

Global competition and labor-intensive production in SMEs: Firm-level evidence from Japan at the threshold of the lost decades

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2024-12-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101350

Yuki HASHIMOTO

We analyze the effect of perceived global competition on firms’ reorganization plans. Using firm-level survey data from Japanese manufacturing SMEs in the late 1990s, we find that manufacturing SMEs perceiving intense global competition were more likely to consider hiring low-skilled immigrants despite being reluctant to increase R&D investment. This suggests that these SMEs were shifting towards becoming more labor-intensive organizations. Additionally, the positive relationship between perceived global competition and the intention to hire immigrant workers is partially mediated by difficulties in retaining young workers.

引用次数: 0

The transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from Japan

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101349

Ritsu Yano, Yoshiyuki Nakazono, Kento Tango

Following Miranda-Agrippino and Ricco (2021), we identify a monetary policy shock in Japan. We construct this shock to be orthogonal to the Bank of Japan’s macroeconomic forecasts, as well as a central bank’s information shock (Nakamura and Steinsson, 2018). Our findings indicate that a surprise policy tightening is contractionary, leading to a deterioration in output and decline in prices. There are no lagged effects of monetary policy on inflation. In response to a tightening shock, prices fall immediately. Furthermore, we demonstrate that a positive central bank information shock increases both output and prices. An unexpected positive outlook from the Bank of Japan raises stock prices and depreciates the Japanese yen. This evidence suggests that information effects play a crucial role in the Japanese economy, even under the effective lower bound.

引用次数: 0

Tokenism in gender diversity on board of directors

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2024-11-28 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101342

Kan Nakajima , Yoko Shirasu , Eiji Kodera

This study examines the existence of tokenism in Japanese companies following the implementation of corporate governance reforms. We focus on the appointment of female outside directors. The existence of tokenism on corporate boards is an important issue for companies worldwide because it deals with gender diversity in the appointment of board members. Following the Abenomics policy of empowering females, Japan introduced “Japan's Corporate Governance Code” (the Code), which included board reforms such as appointing at least two outside directors. Using our sample period after the introduction of the Code, we examine whether tokenism occurs in Japan, a country with low female participation in business. The empirical analysis reveals the occurrence of tokenism at the start of the Code's introduction. Companies appoint two outside directors to meet the formal requirements of the Code. They appoint a male outside director first and a female director later as a token. However, tokenism is not observed when busy female directors with extensive experience are appointed to the board, presumably because they have expertise and skills.

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引用次数: 0

Intergenerational associations between paternal job loss and children's educational attainment in Japan 日本父亲失业与子女受教育程度的代际关系

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2024-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101341

Kazuma Sato

This study explores the association between paternal job loss and children's educational attainments using the Keio Household Panel Survey (KHPS), which provides representative panel data for Japan. Because of the data limitation, the intergenerational consequences of a father's job loss have not been examined in depth in Japan. This study addresses this issue using retrospective data from the school and work history of KHPS and examines the influence of paternal job loss before their children complete compulsory education. In addition, this study employs not only the OLS and logit model but also several matching methods, such as propensity score matching, to examine these relationships properly. The empirical results present two findings. First, the father's job loss is negatively related to the children's educational attainments. Children whose fathers experienced job loss are less likely to graduate from university. In addition, the number of years of education for children whose fathers have lost their jobs is lower. Those results remain the same, despite using several matching methods. Second, even after considering the declines in fathers' income, the negative association of a father's job loss with children's educational attainments is observed.

本研究使用庆应义塾家庭面板调查（KHPS）探讨父亲失业与子女教育程度之间的关系，该调查提供了日本具有代表性的面板数据。由于数据的限制，父亲失业的代际后果在日本还没有深入研究。本研究使用来自KHPS学校和工作历史的回顾性数据来解决这一问题，并检查父亲在子女完成义务教育之前失业的影响。此外，本研究不仅采用OLS和logit模型，还采用倾向得分匹配等多种匹配方法来检验这些关系。实证结果有两个发现。首先，父亲的失业与孩子的教育成就负相关。父亲失业的孩子更不可能从大学毕业。此外，父亲失业的孩子受教育的年数也较低。尽管使用了几种匹配方法，这些结果仍然是相同的。其次，即使考虑到父亲收入的下降，也可以观察到父亲的失业与孩子的教育成就之间的负相关。

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引用次数: 0

Margins, concentration, and the performance of firms in international trade: Evidence from Japanese customs data 边际利润、集中度和企业在国际贸易中的表现：来自日本海关数据的证据

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101340

Keiko Ito , Masahiro Endoh , Naoto Jinji , Toshiyuki Matsuura , Toshihiro Okubo , Akira Sasahara

This study is the first to comprehensively investigate international trade at the firm-level using Japan’s customs data for the 2014–2020 period. We first decompose international trade into the intensive and extensive margins and show that the intensive margin accounts for around 30% and 40% of the variation in partner country-specific exports and imports, respectively. We next find a substantial concentration of trading firms: in 2017, the top 10% of exporters accounted for 96.6% of all exports, while the top 10% of importers were responsible for 94.6% of all imports. Finally, we match the customs data with other firm-level datasets and estimate the performance premia of exporting firms. Our findings indicate that exporting manufacturing firms outperform non-exporting manufacturing firms in all aspects we consider: sales, value added, the number of employees, the capital-labor ratio, productivity, and wages. Interestingly, the exporter premia of manufacturing firms for value added, labor productivity, and total factor productivity decreased between 2014 and 2016 and then increased until 2019, whereas the exporter premium for the average wage steadily increased.

本研究首次利用日本 2014-2020 年的海关数据对企业层面的国际贸易进行了全面调查。我们首先将国际贸易分解为密集边际和广泛边际，结果表明密集边际分别约占伙伴国出口和进口变化的 30% 和 40%。接下来，我们发现贸易公司高度集中：2017 年，排名前 10%的出口商占出口总额的 96.6%，而排名前 10%的进口商占进口总额的 94.6%。最后，我们将海关数据与其他企业层面的数据集进行了匹配，并估算了出口企业的绩效前提。我们的研究结果表明，出口制造业企业在销售额、附加值、员工数量、资本劳动比率、生产率和工资等所有方面的表现都优于非出口制造业企业。有趣的是，制造业企业在增加值、劳动生产率和全要素生产率方面的出口商溢价在 2014 年至 2016 年期间有所下降，然后在 2019 年之前有所上升，而平均工资方面的出口商溢价则稳步上升。

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引用次数: 0

Labor market of regular workers in Japan: A perspective from job advertisement data

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2024-11-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101339

Kakuho Furukawa , Yoshihiko Hogen , Yosuke Kido

We present an analysis of wages and labor market tightness for regular workers (full-time permanent workers) in Japan, utilizing a novel dataset of online job advertisements spanning the period from 2015 to 2022. Despite the importance of online job advertisements for the labor market, little has been studied for the case of Japan. Our study documents labor market conditions reflected in online job advertisement data and investigates how posted wages are related to the labor market tightness, and how they affect actual wages of existing workers. The results uncover several aspects of the labor market which are not captured by official statistics. First, we find that posted wages for regular workers increased at a pace faster than wages for existing regular workers in the sample period, with some heterogeneity across industries and skill requirements. Second, we find that the estimated job-filling rate observed from the dataset declined in recent years, which suggests difficulties that firms faced in hiring workers, and that this was associated with an increase in posted wages. Third, we find that an increase in posted wages positively affects the wages of existing regular workers after some time lag. Our empirical findings suggest that spillovers are driven by underlying mechanisms such as retention of existing workers, and fairness norms to maintain a balance in wages between newly hired workers and existing workers.

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引用次数: 0

Automation and disappearing routine occupations in Japan 日本的自动化和日常职业的消失

IF 2.6 3区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Journal of the Japanese and International Economies

Pub Date : 2024-11-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.jjie.2024.101338

Shinnosuke Kikuchi , Ippei Fujiwara , Toyoichiro Shirota

We examine the implications of automation technology in Japan since 1980, comparing different local labor markets with different degrees of automation exposure. First, we do not find evidence that automation reduces employment rate within demographic groups and automation encourages workers to move from regular to non-regular employment. Second, we show that automation shifts employment from routine occupations in the manufacturing sector to service sectors, while increasing the share of establishments and sales in the manufacturing sector. Finally, we show that this shift in labor demand is attributed to younger generations and non-college-educated workers.

我们研究了日本自 1980 年以来自动化技术的影响，比较了不同自动化程度的地方劳动力市场。首先，我们没有发现证据表明自动化降低了人口群体的就业率，而且自动化鼓励工人从正规就业转向非正规就业。其次，我们表明，自动化将就业从制造业的常规职业转移到了服务业，同时增加了制造业的机构和销售份额。最后，我们表明，劳动力需求的这种转移归因于年轻一代和未受过大学教育的工人。

引用次数: 0

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