An examination and extension of the Peltzman effect during the Covid-19 pandemic

Abstract

Since the first COVID-19 case was confirmed in Germany, the German government has introduced various measures to counteract the pandemic. The implementation of safety measures can have counterproductive effects: people engage in risk compensatory behavior (fewer safety behaviors) after regulations are introduced and obligated by the government, which is known as the Peltzman effect (Peltzman, 1975). Based on the Peltzman effect, the researchers of this study hypothesized that people complied less with safety behaviors and took more health risks (e.g. keep less distance) after the implementation of more stringent COVID-19-related regulations (quarantine obligation and face mask duty) between the two measurement periods of this study. They also extended the Peltzman model by hypothesizing moderating roles of age, gender, and perceived COVID-19 threat. Results of the longitudinal survey study (N = 989, T1: 26 March – 31 March 2020 and T2: 27 April – 4 May 2020) confirm that people indeed complied less with safety recommendations over time associated with strengthened COVID-19-related regulations. Perceived COVID-19 threat to those in a person's surroundings (e.g. family, neighbors) had a positive impact on compliance, but age and gender had no effect. This extends the literature on the Peltzman effect by adding perceived COVID-19 threat as a new relevant construct, enabling the development of more effective safety preventions in the future.