A Nomogram Model for Predicting Prognosis of Patients with Medulloblastoma.

IF 0.9 4区医学 Q4 CLINICAL NEUROLOGY Turkish neurosurgery Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI:10.5137/1019-5149.JTN.40397-22.3

Hui Liu, Peng Sun

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Abstract

Aim: To identify the prognostic factors associated with cancer-specific survival in medulloblastoma (MB), and to use them for establishing a nomogram model to predict cancer-specific survival.

Material and methods: In total, 268 patients with MB were included; they were rigorously respectively screened from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database from 1988 to 2015 and statistically analyzed in R language. This study focused on cancer-specific death and used the cox regression analysis for variable filtering. The model was calibrated using C-index, area under the curve (AUC), and calibration curve.

Results: As per our findings, it was determined that extension (localized: hazard ratio [HR]=0.5899, p=0.00963; further extension: indicator) and treatment modality (radiation after surgery chemotherapy sequence unknown: HR=0.3646, p=0.00192; no surgery: indicator) were statistically significant in the prognosis of MB and were finally utilized to construct a nomogram model for predicting the condition. The AUC values were 0.649, 0.629, and 0.64 at 2, 3, and 5 years, respectively.

Conclusion: Tumor extension and treatment modality were independent prognostic factors for MB.

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预测髓母细胞瘤患者预后的提名图模型

目的：确定与髓母细胞瘤（MB）癌症特异性生存相关的预后因素，并利用这些因素建立预测癌症特异性生存的提名图模型：共纳入268例MB患者，分别从1988年至2015年的监测、流行病学和最终结果数据库中进行严格筛选，并用R语言进行统计分析。本研究重点关注癌症特异性死亡，并使用 cox 回归分析进行变量筛选。使用 C 指数、曲线下面积（AUC）和校准曲线对模型进行了校准：根据我们的研究结果，确定扩展（局部：危险比[HR]=0.5899，P=0.00963；进一步扩展：指标）和治疗方式（手术后放疗化疗顺序未知：HR=0.3646，P=0.00192；不手术：指标）对 MB 的预后有显著的统计学意义，并最终用于构建预测病情的提名图模型。2年、3年和5年的AUC值分别为0.649、0.629和0.64：结论：肿瘤扩展和治疗方式是甲基溴的独立预后因素。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Turkish neurosurgery 医学-临床神经学

CiteScore

1.50

自引率

12.50%

发文量

126

审稿时长

2 months

期刊介绍： Turkish Neurosurgery is a peer-reviewed, multidisciplinary, open access and totally free journal directed at an audience of neurosurgery physicians and scientists. The official language of the journal is English. The journal publishes original articles in the form of clinical and basic research. Turkish Neurosurgery will only publish studies that have institutional review board (IRB) approval and have strictly observed an acceptable follow-up period. With the exception of reference presentation, Turkish Neurosurgery requires that all manuscripts be prepared in accordance with the Uniform Requirements for Manuscripts Submitted to Biomedical Journals.