{"title":"Influenza pandemics and macroeconomic fluctuations 1871-2016.","authors":"Fraser Summerfield, Livio Di Matteo","doi":"10.1007/s11698-023-00269-w","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871-2016 using the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.</p>","PeriodicalId":44951,"journal":{"name":"Cliometrica","volume":" ","pages":"1-47"},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10225784/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cliometrica","FirstCategoryId":"98","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1007/s11698-023-00269-w","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"历史学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This paper documents the short-run macroeconomic impacts of influenza pandemics across 16 countries spanning 1871-2016 using the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database and the Human Mortality Database. We find pandemic-induced mortality contributed meaningfully to business cycle fluctuations in the post 1870 era. We identify negative causal impacts on the cyclical component of GDP using pandemics to instrument for working-age mortality. The analysis of short-run economic outcomes extends literature dominated by long-run economic growth outcomes and case studies of several specific health shocks such as the Black Death, Spanish Flu or COVID-19. Our findings illustrate that less catastrophic pandemics still have important economic implications.
期刊介绍：
Cliometrica provides a leading forum for exchange of ideas and research in all facets, in all historical periods and in all geographical locations of historical economics. The journal encourages the methodological debate, the use of economic theory in general and model building in particular, the reliance upon quantification to buttress the models with historical data, the use of the more standard historical knowledge to broaden the understanding and suggesting new avenues of research, and the use of statistical theory and econometrics to combine models with data in a single consistent explanation. The highest standards of quality are promoted. All articles will be subject to Cliometrica''s peer review process. On occasion, specialised topics may be presented in a special issue.
Officially cited as: Cliometrica
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