Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the City of Frankfurt/Main, Germany, in 2020 and 2021, adjusted for age trends and pandemic phases.

IF 1.7 Q3 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH GMS Hygiene and Infection Control Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI:10.3205/dgkh000434
Katrin Steul, Ursel Heudorf, Helmut Uphoff, Bernd Kowall
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Abstract

Aims: Excess mortality during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has been studied in many countries. Accounting for population aging has important implications for excess mortality estimates. We show the importance of adjustment for age trends in a small-scale mortality analysis as well as the importance of analysing different pandemic phases for mortality in an urban population.

Methods: Population data for Frankfurt/Main for 2016-2021 were obtained from the Municipal Office of Statistics, City of Frankfurt/Main. Mortality data from 2016 to 2021 were provided by the Hessian State Authority. For standardized mortality ratios (SMR=observed number of deaths divided by the expected number of deaths), the expected number of deaths was calculated in two ways: For SMRcrude, the mean mortality rate from the years 2016-2019 was multiplied by the total number of residents in 2020 and 2021 separately. For SMRadjusted, this procedure was performed separately for five age groups, and the numbers of expected deaths per age group were added.

Results: SMRcrude was 1.006 (95% CI: 0.980-1.031) in 2020, and 1.047 (95% CI: 1.021-1.073) in 2021. SMRadjusted was 0.976 (95% CI: 0.951-1.001) in 2020 and 0.998 (95% CI: 0.973-1.023) in 2021. Excess mortality was observed during pandemic wave 2, but not during pandemic waves 1 and 3.

Conclusion: Taking the aging of the population into account, no excess mortality was observed in Frankfurt/Main in 2020 and 2021. Without adjusting for population aging trends in Frankfurt /Main, mortality would have been greatly overestimated.

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2020年和2021年德国法兰克福/美因市SARS-CoV-2大流行期间的超额死亡率,根据年龄趋势和大流行阶段进行了调整。
目的:在许多国家对SARS-CoV-2大流行期间的超额死亡率进行了研究。考虑人口老龄化对估计超额死亡率具有重要意义。我们展示了在小规模死亡率分析中调整年龄趋势的重要性,以及分析城市人口中不同流行阶段死亡率的重要性。方法:2016-2021年法兰克福/美因的人口数据来自法兰克福/美因市市政统计局。2016年至2021年的死亡率数据由黑森州政府提供。对于标准化死亡率(SMR=观察到的死亡人数除以预期死亡人数),预期死亡人数通过两种方式计算:对于SMRcrude,将2016-2019年的平均死亡率分别乘以2020年和2021年的居民总数。对于调整smr后的5个年龄组,分别执行该程序,并添加每个年龄组的预期死亡人数。结果:2020年SMRcrude为1.006 (95% CI: 0.980-1.031), 2021年为1.047 (95% CI: 1.021-1.073)。2020年smr调整为0.976 (95% CI: 0.951-1.001), 2021年为0.998 (95% CI: 0.973-1.023)。在第2大流行波期间观察到死亡率过高,但在第1和第3大流行波期间没有观察到死亡率过高。结论:考虑到人口老龄化,法兰克福/美因在2020年和2021年没有观察到额外的死亡率。如果没有对法兰克福/美因的人口老龄化趋势进行调整,死亡率将被大大高估。
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GMS Hygiene and Infection Control
GMS Hygiene and Infection Control PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH-
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审稿时长
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