Association of 3-Year All-Cause Mortality and Peak Wall Stresses of Ascending Thoracic Aortic Aneurysms in Veterans

Risk of aortic dissection in ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms is not sufficiently captured by size-based metrics. From a biomechanical perspective, dissection may be initiated when wall stress exceeds wall strength. Our objective was to assess the association between aneurysm peak wall stresses and 3-year all-cause mortality. Finite element analysis was performed in 273 veterans with chest computed tomography for surveillance of ascending thoracic aortic aneurysms. Three-dimensional geometries were reconstructed and models developed accounting for prestress geometries. A fiber-embedded hyperelastic material model was applied to obtain circumferential and longitudinal wall stresses under systolic pressure. Patients were followed up to 3 years following the scan to assess aneurysm repair and all-cause mortality. Fine-Gray subdistribution hazards were estimated for all-cause mortality based on age, aortic diameter, and peak wall stresses, treating aneurysm repair as a competing risk. When accounting for age, subdistribution hazard of mortality was not significantly increased by peak circumferential stresses (p = 0.30) but was significantly increased by peak longitudinal stresses (p = 0.008). Aortic diameter did not significantly increase subdistribution hazard of mortality in either model (circumferential model: p = 0.38; longitudinal model: p = 0.30). The effect of peak longitudinal stresses on subdistribution hazard of mortality was maximized at a binary threshold of 355kPa, which captured 34 of 212(16%) patients with diameter <5 cm, 11 of 36(31%) at 5.0–5.4 cm, and 11 of 25(44%) at ≥5.5 cm. Aneurysm peak longitudinal stresses stratified by age and diameter were associated with increased hazard of 3-year all-cause mortality in a veteran cohort. Risk prediction may be enhanced by considering peak longitudinal stresses.