{"title":"中国 COVID-19 大流行前后（2010-21 年）性传播疾病的长期趋势。","authors":"Aifang Xu, Zhongbao Zuo, Chunli Yang, Fei Ye, Miaochan Wang, Jing Wu, Chengjing Tao, Yunhao Xun, Zhaoyi Li, Shourong Liu, Jinsong Huang","doi":"10.1071/SH22172","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The longer ongoing benefits of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in China are still unclear. We aimed to explore the changes in five STDs (AIDS, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, from 2010 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The number of the monthly reported cases of the five STDs were extracted from the website to construct the Joinpoint regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Eight indicators reflecting NPIs were chosen from the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker system. The STDs and eight indicators were used to establish the Multivariable generalised linear model (GLM) to calculate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>With the exception of hepatitis B, the other four STDs (AIDS, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) had a positive average annual percent change over the past 12years. All the ARIMA models had passed the Ljung-Box test, and the predicted data fit well with the data from 2010 to 2019. All five STDs were significantly reduced in 2020 compared with 2019, with significant estimated IRRs ranging from 0.88 to 0.92. In the GLM, using data for the years 2020 (February-December) and 2021, the IRRs were not significant after adjusting for the eight indicators in multivariate analysis.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our study demonstrated that the incidence of the five STDs decreased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A recovery of STDs in 2021 was found to occur compared with that in 2020, but the rising trend disappeared after adjusting for the NPIs. Our study demonstrated that NPIs have an effect on STDs, but the relaxation of NPI usage might lead to a resurgence.</p>","PeriodicalId":22165,"journal":{"name":"Sexual health","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.8000,"publicationDate":"2023-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"A long trend of sexually transmitted diseases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China (2010-21).\",\"authors\":\"Aifang Xu, Zhongbao Zuo, Chunli Yang, Fei Ye, Miaochan Wang, Jing Wu, Chengjing Tao, Yunhao Xun, Zhaoyi Li, Shourong Liu, Jinsong Huang\",\"doi\":\"10.1071/SH22172\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>The longer ongoing benefits of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in China are still unclear. We aimed to explore the changes in five STDs (AIDS, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, from 2010 to 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>The number of the monthly reported cases of the five STDs were extracted from the website to construct the Joinpoint regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Eight indicators reflecting NPIs were chosen from the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker system. The STDs and eight indicators were used to establish the Multivariable generalised linear model (GLM) to calculate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs).</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>With the exception of hepatitis B, the other four STDs (AIDS, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) had a positive average annual percent change over the past 12years. All the ARIMA models had passed the Ljung-Box test, and the predicted data fit well with the data from 2010 to 2019. All five STDs were significantly reduced in 2020 compared with 2019, with significant estimated IRRs ranging from 0.88 to 0.92. In the GLM, using data for the years 2020 (February-December) and 2021, the IRRs were not significant after adjusting for the eight indicators in multivariate analysis.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Our study demonstrated that the incidence of the five STDs decreased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A recovery of STDs in 2021 was found to occur compared with that in 2020, but the rising trend disappeared after adjusting for the NPIs. Our study demonstrated that NPIs have an effect on STDs, but the relaxation of NPI usage might lead to a resurgence.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":22165,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Sexual health\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.8000,\"publicationDate\":\"2023-12-01\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Sexual health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1071/SH22172\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Sexual health","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1071/SH22172","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
A long trend of sexually transmitted diseases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic in China (2010-21).
Background: The longer ongoing benefits of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) in China are still unclear. We aimed to explore the changes in five STDs (AIDS, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic in mainland China, from 2010 to 2021.
Methods: The number of the monthly reported cases of the five STDs were extracted from the website to construct the Joinpoint regression and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. Eight indicators reflecting NPIs were chosen from the COVID-19 Government Response Tracker system. The STDs and eight indicators were used to establish the Multivariable generalised linear model (GLM) to calculate the incidence rate ratios (IRRs).
Results: With the exception of hepatitis B, the other four STDs (AIDS, hepatitis C, gonorrhoea, and syphilis) had a positive average annual percent change over the past 12years. All the ARIMA models had passed the Ljung-Box test, and the predicted data fit well with the data from 2010 to 2019. All five STDs were significantly reduced in 2020 compared with 2019, with significant estimated IRRs ranging from 0.88 to 0.92. In the GLM, using data for the years 2020 (February-December) and 2021, the IRRs were not significant after adjusting for the eight indicators in multivariate analysis.
Conclusion: Our study demonstrated that the incidence of the five STDs decreased rapidly during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. A recovery of STDs in 2021 was found to occur compared with that in 2020, but the rising trend disappeared after adjusting for the NPIs. Our study demonstrated that NPIs have an effect on STDs, but the relaxation of NPI usage might lead to a resurgence.
期刊介绍：
Sexual Health publishes original and significant contributions to the fields of sexual health including HIV/AIDS, Sexually transmissible infections, issues of sexuality and relevant areas of reproductive health. This journal is directed towards those working in sexual health as clinicians, public health practitioners, researchers in behavioural, clinical, laboratory, public health or social, sciences. The journal publishes peer reviewed original research, editorials, review articles, topical debates, case reports and critical correspondence.
Officially sponsored by:
The Australasian Chapter of Sexual Health Medicine of RACP
Sexual Health Society of Queensland
Sexual Health is the official journal of the International Union against Sexually Transmitted Infections (IUSTI), Asia-Pacific, and the Asia-Oceania Federation of Sexology.
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