Nomogram to predict the risk of adverse outcomes in patients with residual stones following percutaneous nephrolithotomy.

Purpose: To investigate the risk factors associated with adverse outcomes in patients with residual stones after percutaneous nephrolithotomy (PCNL) and to establish a nomogram to predict the probability of adverse outcomes based on these risk factors.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective review of 233 patients who underwent PCNL for upper urinary tract calculi and had postoperative residual stones. The patients were divided into two groups according to whether adverse outcomes occurred, and the risk factors for adverse outcomes were explored by univariate and multivariate analyses. Finally, we created a nomogram for predicting the risk of adverse outcomes in patients with residual stones after PCNL.

Results: In this study, adverse outcomes occurred in 125 (53.6%) patients. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the independent risk factors for adverse outcomes were the diameter of the postoperative residual stones (P < 0.001), a positive urine culture (P = 0.022), and previous stone surgery (P = 0.004). The above independent risk factors were used as variables to construct the nomogram. The nomogram model was internally validated. The calculated concordance index was 0.772. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test was performed (P > 0.05). The area under the ROC curve of this model was 0.772.

Conclusions: Larger diameter of residual stones, positive urine culture, and previous stone surgery were significant predictors associated with adverse outcomes in patients with residual stones after PCNL. Our nomogram could help to assess the risk of adverse outcomes quickly and effectively in patients with residual stones after PCNL.