Preoperative Predictors of Prolonged Opioid Use in the 6 Months After Total Knee Arthroplasty.

Objectives: Prolonged postoperative opioid use increases the risk for new postsurgical opioid use disorder. We evaluated preoperative phenotypic factors predicting prolonged postoperative opioid use.

Methods: We performed a secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort (n=108) undergoing total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis with 6-week and 6-month follow-up. Current opioid use and psychosocial, pain, and opioid-related characteristics were assessed at preoperative baseline. Primary outcomes were days/week of opioid use at follow-up.

Results: At 6 weeks, preoperative opioid use and greater cumulative opioid exposure, depression, catastrophizing, anxiety, pain interference, sleep disturbance, and central sensitization were significantly associated with more days/week of opioid use after controlling for contemporaneous pain intensity. Prior euphoric response to opioids were also significant predictors at 6 months. All 6-week predictors except anxiety remained significant after controlling for preoperative opioid use; at 6 months, cumulative opioid exposure, catastrophizing, pain interference, and sleep disturbance remained significant after this adjustment ( P <0.05). In multivariable models, a psychosocial factor reflecting negative affect, sleep, and pain accurately predicted 6-week opioid use (area under the curve=0.84). A combined model incorporating psychosocial factor scores, opioid-related factor scores, and preoperative opioid use showed near-perfect predictive accuracy at 6 months (area under the curve=0.97).

Discussion: Overall, preoperative psychosocial, pain-related, and opioid-related phenotypic characteristics predicted prolonged opioid use after total knee arthroplasty.