Examining the association between California tobacco licensed retail density and public support or opposition to state anti-tobacco legislation.

Introduction: The state of California has enacted progressive anti-tobacco policies, including Proposition 56 in 2016. In response, the alternative and emerging tobacco product (ATP) industry has increased its political activity. This study explores the association between the proportion of people voting against Proposition 56 and tobacco/ATP retail density.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis using data on licensed California tobacco retailers, which were then cross-referenced for categorization using Yelp. Proportion voting against Proposition 56 was obtained from the Secretary of State's website. A series of linear regression tests were performed between population-normalized retailer density and voting proportion at the county level before and after adjusting for covariates such as age, gender, race/ethnicity and median household income.

Results: The total number of licensed tobacco retailers increased by 29.31% from 2015 to 2019. Association between proportion voting against Proposition 56 and retail density was significant during voting and during periods of policy implementation and post-implementation (2016-2018) for non-specialized tobacco retailers. For specialized/ATP retailers, significance was only detected during the post-implementation period (2018-2019) after normalization. Proportion voting against Proposition 56 was also a significant predictor of increase in total number of non-specific (β=0.48, p=0.008) as well as specialized tobacco and/or ATP retail storefronts (β=0.21, p=0.001) from 2016 to 2018.

Conclusions: This study provides initial evidence of the association between tobacco retail density and voting patterns for anti-tobacco policy. Future research should examine the role of tobacco retail density on variation in local support for state tobacco control initiatives, including tailoring outreach to specific voting census blocks in communities with heavy retail presence.