治疗和营养干预下肺炎传播动力学的年龄结构微分方程模型

Dickson W. Bahaye, Theresia Marijani, Goodluck Mlay
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引用次数: 0

摘要

肺炎是威胁五岁以下儿童和65岁以上老年人生命的主要传染病。这是一种通常由肺炎链球菌引起的感染。在这项研究中,制定了一个年龄结构(儿童和老年人)肺炎模型,并对其进行了分析,以确定治疗和适当的营养对两个年龄组中疾病传播动态的影响。采用新一代方法测定有效繁殖数(Re)。确定无病平衡点,并发现当relt;1时,无病平衡点局部和全局渐近稳定。采用归一化正向敏感性指数法对模型参数进行敏感性分析,结果表明,传输率是对有效繁殖数最正的参数,而适当营养是对有效繁殖数最负敏感的参数。此外,还进行了数值模拟,观察到适当的营养和治疗相结合在减少肺炎感染者人数方面更为有效。该研究鼓励联合使用适当的营养和治疗来控制儿童和老年人之间的肺炎传播,特别是在经济限制、基础设施和分配挑战限制疫苗供应的发展中国家。
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An age-structured differential equations model for transmission dynamics of pneumonia with treatment and nutrition intervention

Pneumonia is the leading infectious disease that threatens the lives of children under five and elders over 65. It is an infection that is commonly caused by Streptococcus pneumoniae. In this study, an age-structured (children and elders) model for pneumonia was formulated and analyzed to determine the impact of treatment and proper nutrition on the transmission dynamics of the disease in the two age groups. The effective reproduction number (Re) was determined using the next-generation method. The disease-free equilibrium point was determined and found locally and globally asymptotically stable if Re<1. Sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was performed using the normalized forward sensitivity index method, and the findings show that transmission rates are the most positive parameters to the effective reproduction number, while proper nutrition was the most negatively sensitive parameter. Additionally, numerical simulations were performed, and it was observed that the combination of proper nutrition and treatment was more effective in reducing the number of pneumonia-infected individuals. The study encourages the joint use of proper nutrition and treatment to control pneumonia transmission among children and elders, especially in the developing world, where economic constraints, infrastructure, and distribution challenges limit vaccine availability.

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来源期刊
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.)
Healthcare analytics (New York, N.Y.) Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Simulation, Nursing and Health Professions (General)
CiteScore
4.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
79 days
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