模拟公共债务对乌克兰经济增长的影响

Serhiy Shvets`
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引用次数: 1

摘要

该研究考虑了确定公共债务水平与经济增长之间关系的建模方法。这些指标之间正、中性和负相关的经验证据以倒u型曲线的形式呈现非线性函数,其理论论证与公共财政黄金法则的实施有关。为了验证以乌克兰经济为例的经验证据,作者基于所构建的财政-货币相互作用的计量经济模型进行了情景评估。建模结果证实了一种对应于二阶多项式趋势的关系的存在。公共债务的最高水平是63.8%,超过这一水平GDP增长率就会下降;公共债务的临界水平是87.4%,超过这一水平经济增长率就会变为负值。由于乌克兰经济的发展正接近既定功能入口的上限,为了加速增长,有必要将有限的公共债务资源集中用于融资高资本回报率的大型基础设施项目。
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Modeling the impact of public debt on economic growth in Ukraine
The study considers modeling approaches to determine the relationship between the level of public debt and economic growth. Empirical evidence for the positive, neutral, and negative correlation between the indicators arrive in a nonlinear function in the form of inverted U-curve, whose theoretical argumentation is associated with the implementation of the golden rule of public finance. To verify the empirical evidence on the example of Ukraine's economy, the author provides a scenario assessment based on the constructed econometric model of fiscal-monetary interaction. The results of modeling confirm the existence of a relationship that corresponds to a second-order polynomial trend. The maximum level of public debt, above which the GDP rate declines, is 63.8%, and the critical level of public debt, at which the rate of economic growth changes to negative, is 87.4%. As the development of Ukraine's economy is approaching the upper limit of the determined functional entry, to accelerate growth, it is necessary to focus the limited resource of public debt to finance large-scale infrastructure projects with a high capital return.
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Science and innovation in Ukraine: approaches to policy making in times of war REGULATION OF UKRAINE’S COMMODITY MARKETS IN CONDITIONS OF EMERGENCY AND MARTIAL LAW A RHYMED CHRONICLE OF THE WAR UKRAINE’S POST-WAR ECONOMY: INTERNATIONAL AID AND GROWTH POLICY STRATEGIES OF ECONOMIC STABILITY IN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
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