西班牙经济的生产网络模型及其对NGEU基金影响的应用

Alejandro Fernández-Cerezo, Enrique Moral-Benito, J. Quintana
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引用次数: 12

摘要

本文为西班牙经济引入了一个部门模型,该模型可以更好地理解考虑到不同网络相互依赖性的特定部门冲击的传播。特别是,该模型在开放经济环境下,在提供中间投入和资本货物或在劳动力市场上竞争的几个方面,突出了部门之间的相互作用。这一框架具有足够的灵活性,可以深入了解若干政策相关冲击的影响,例如全球价值链瓶颈、能源密集型部门生产成本增加或大型公共投资计划。为了说明这种部门互动的作用,我们考虑基于西班牙的复苏,转型和弹性计划(RTRP)的下一代欧盟(NGEU)基金的部门化,该计划将动员695亿欧元的赠款。根据我们的研究结果,如果我们只考虑投资计划和支出计划的直接影响,5年的平均影响是GDP的1.15%,但如果我们考虑到某些部门生产能力的增加及其通过生产网络的传播,它会增加到1.75%。此外,在高度依赖高技能劳动力的部门,如IT和专业服务部门,由此产生的扩张尤其强劲,这可能导致高技能工人短缺,对GDP的总影响将减少25%。
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A production network model for the Spanish economy with an application to the impact of NGEU funds
This paper introduces a sectoral model for the Spanish economy that allows a better understanding of the propagation of sector-specific shocks taking into account different network interdependencies. In particular, the model features sector interactions along several dimensions in an open economy setting, either in the provision of intermediate inputs and capital goods or competing in the labour market. This framework is flexible enough to provide insights into the effect of several policy-relevant shocks, such as global value chain bottlenecks, increases in production costs in energy-intensive sectors or large public investment programmes. In order to illustrate the role of such sectoral interactions, we consider a sectorisation of Next Generation EU (NGEU) funds based on Spain’s Recovery, Transformation and Resilience Plan (RTRP) which will mobilize €69.5 bn in grants. According to our findings, the average impact over a 5-year horizon is 1.15% of GDP if we consider only the direct effect of the investment programmes and expenditure plans, but it increases to 1.75% if we take into account the increase in the productive capacity of certain sectors and its propagation through the production network. Moreover, the resulting expansion is particularly strong in sectors highly dependent on high-skilled labour, such as IT and professional services, which might lead to shortages of high-skilled workers, reducing the aggregate impact on GDP by 25%.
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