土地资源和农产品出口关系

H. Uçak, Saliha Çelik, Hakan Kurt
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摘要

研究背景作为各国在发展过程中经历的结构转型过程的一部分,农业作为一个部门的相对重要性通常会随着时间的推移而缩小。尽管如此,农业部门至今在其贸易潜力和全球就业前景方面仍具有重要意义。现有文献通过强调农场规模和土地生产力的关系,在很大程度上忽略了国家土地资源对农业贸易的影响。这证明了探索各国农业用地资源与其农业出口之间的因果关系是合理的。本研究旨在调查1991-2019年174个国家的农业用地资源总量与农产品出口之间的关系。研究方法采用Dumitrescu和Hurlin(2012)对异质性面板的格兰杰非因果关系检验。估计结果表明,不仅在整个面板(1991-2019)中,而且在子面板(1991-2000、2001-2010和2011-2019)中,各国的农业用地资源与农业出口之间存在双向因果关系(反馈)。总体而言,研究结果强调了农业用地作为农业出口的重要决定因素的战略重要性。本文采用独特的研究方法,运用贸易要素禀赋理论考察一国的农地资源与其农产品出口之间是否存在因果关系。
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Land Resources and Agricultural Exports Nexus
Abstract Research background As part of the process of structural transformation that countries go through in their development journey, the relative significance of agriculture as a sector typically shrinks over time. Nonetheless, the agricultural sector maintains its significance in terms of its trade potential and global employment prospects to this day. The extant literature largely neglects the impact of countries’ land resources on agricultural trade by emphasizing agricultural farm size and land productivity nexus. This justifies the exploration of the causal nexus between countries’ agricultural land resources and their agricultural exports. Purpose The study herein aims at investigating the nexus between countries’ total agricultural land resources and agricultural exports for 174 selected countries over the period 1991–2019. Research methodology Dumitrescu and Hurlin’s (2012) test for Granger non-causality for heterogeneous panels is harnessed. Results Estimation results evidence the presence of bi-directional causality (feedback) between countries’ agricultural land resources and agricultural exports not only in the whole panel (1991–2019) but also in subpanels too (1991–2000, 2001–2010, and 2011–2019). Overall, the results stress the strategic importance of agricultural land as a significant determinant of agricultural exports. Novelty Our study takes a unique approach and investigates if there is a cause-and-effect relationship between a country’s agricultural land resources and its agricultural exports by relying on the implications of the factor endowment theory of trade.
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