21世纪的杰斐逊选举团制度

E. Foley
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摘要

从杰斐逊的角度来看,2016年的选举至少是有问题的,就像1992年一样,也可能是另一场系统性故障,就像2000年一样。唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)获得了304张选举人票中的107张,而他在这些州赢得的普选票不到50%——未能实现杰斐逊(Jeffersonian)关于选举系统应该如何运作的那种复合多数。2016年的选举表明,这个系统无法处理像加里·约翰逊(Gary Johnson)和吉尔·斯坦(Jill Stein)这样的第三方和独立候选人,这种无能是由杰克逊时代的多数派赢家通吃造成的。特朗普还是希拉里·克林顿会在密歇根州、威斯康星州和宾夕法尼亚州这三个关键的锈带州赢得决选,目前还不清楚。但是,如果克林顿在那里赢得了决选(以及在那些她只是以多数票获胜的州),那么她就会以适当的杰斐逊式多数中的多数赢得选举团。
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The Jeffersonian Electoral College in the Twenty-First Century
The 2016 election is, at a minimum, problematic from a Jeffersonian perspective, like 1992, and may have been another systemic malfunction, like 2000. Donald Trump received 107 of his 304 electoral votes in states where he won less than 50 percent of the popular vote—failing to achieve the kind of compound majority-of-majorities consistent with the Jeffersonian vision of how the system should work. 2016 illustrates the system’s inability to handle third-party and independent candidates, like Gary Johnson and Jill Stein, an inability caused by the addition of plurality winner-take-all in the Jacksonian era. It is unknowable whether Trump or Hillary Clinton would have won runoffs in the three pivotal Rust Belt states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But if Clinton had won runoffs there (and in the states where she was only a plurality winner), then she would have won the Electoral College with an appropriately Jeffersonian majority-of-majorities.
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The Jeffersonian Electoral College in the Twenty-First Century Conclusion The Jeffersonian Electoral College in the Twentieth Century
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