跨太平洋伙伴关系对北美潜在复苏的国际贸易影响

Baybars Karacaovali, Deveraux Talagi
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摘要

摘要本文分析了美国、加拿大和墨西哥与现已不存在的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP12)成员国之间的国际贸易关系现状和历史,以期在美国决定加入新的《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(CPTPP或TPP11)的情况下,为未来潜在的影响提供见解。通过重力模型估计,我们发现TPP12成员国之间的现有自由贸易协定(tpp内)和TPP12成员国与其他国家之间的自由贸易协定(tpp外)对1980-2015年期间的贸易产生了积极影响。重启的TPP12协议有望进一步促进贸易。关键词。国际贸易,重力模型,自由贸易协定,跨太平洋伙伴关系。冻胶。F10。
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International trade effects of a potentially revived Trans-Pacific partnership for North America
Abstract. This paper analyzes the international trade relations of the United States, Canada, and Mexico with the now defunct Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP12) member countries currently and historically in order to provide insights for potential future effects provided United States decides to join the new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP or TPP11) with the remaining original TPP countries. Using a gravity model estimation, we find that the existing free trade agreements (FTAs) between TPP12 countries (intra-TPP) and FTAs between TPP12 members and other countries (extra-TPP) have positively impacted trade in the 1980-2015 period. A revived TPP12 agreement promises to boost trade further. Keywords. International trade, Gravity model, Free trade agreements, Trans-Pacific partnership. JEL. F10.
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