极端海难统计及工程应用

L. Defu, Liu Guilin, Shi Hongda, Wang Fengqing, Chen Ziyu
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引用次数: 3

摘要

随着全球气候变暖和海平面上升,外部极端自然灾害发生的频率和强度都将增加。面对日益增加的极端气象灾害趋势,台风/飓风/热带气旋引发的灾害是影响亚洲、美洲和澳大利亚国家经济发展和数百万人口的最重要因素。本文介绍了我们提出的复合极值分布(CEVD)和多元复合极值分布(MCEVD),并将其与中国、API、DNV和IAEA的一些传统海防基础设施和海上结构抗台风/飓风设计规范进行了比较。2005年的卡特里娜飓风、新奥尔良的丽塔飓风、墨西哥湾地区的飓风、2012年纽约-新泽西地区的桑迪飓风和2013年中国的菲特台风灾害不仅证明了我们在1982年提出的CEVD,也证明了2006年提出的MCEVD在上述地区的预测结果。
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Extreme sea hazards statistics and engineering applications
With the global warming and sea level rising, the frequency and intensity of extreme external natural hazards would increase. Face to the increasing tendency of extreme meteorological hazards the typhoon /hurricane/tropical cyclone triggered disasters are the most important factors influencing the economic development and millions of people in Asia, American and Australia countries. This paper introduced our proposed Compound Extreme Value Distribution (CEVD), Multivariate Compound Extreme Value Distribution (MCEVD) and compared it with some traditional design codes in China, API, DNV and IAEA for coastal defense infrastructures and offshore structures against typhoon/hurricane attacks. 2005 hurricane Katrina, Rita disaster in New Orleans, Gulf of Mexico sea areas, 2012 hurricane Sandy disaster in New York - New Jersey areas and 2013 typhoon Fitow disaster in China not only proved our proposed CEVD in 1982, but also proved 2006 proposed MCEVD predicted results in mentioned above areas.
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