欧元区国家财政政策的非凯恩斯效应及其对经济趋同的影响

A. Balcerzak, M. Pietrzak, E. Rogalska
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摘要

上一次全球金融危机导致大多数发达国家采取了大规模的财政刺激措施,导致其公共债务大幅增加。这也适用于欧元区或更广泛的欧盟经济体。在不久的将来,这些因素将迫使许多欧盟国家采取更为严格的中长期财政政策,这将是去杠杆化进程所必需的。在此背景下,本研究的目的是检验是否可以发现欧元区国家在过去十年中财政整顿的非凯恩斯效应。如果答案是肯定的,那么这些非凯恩斯效应是否会成为欧元区国家的重要发展因素?第三个科学问题集中在财政整顿的实施方式以及整顿战略对短期增长的潜在影响上。研究中采用了基于条件收敛概念的计量经济学动态面板模型。作为一种补充方法,我们对重大紧缩案例进行了定性分析,重点关注扩张性(即非凯恩斯主义)财政紧缩案例与传统凯恩斯主义财政紧缩案例之间的差异。研究结果表明,存在导致财政政策产生非凯恩斯效应的财政转移渠道,同时也可能是非条件趋同的一个因素。
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Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in Euro Zone Countries with Special Consideration of Influence on Economic Convergence
Last global financial crisis has led to massive fiscal stimulation actions in most of developed countries which resulted in significant increase of their public debt. This can be also said about Eurozone or wider EU economies. This factors in near future will force many EU countries to adopt much stricter middle and long term fiscal policy that will be necessary for deleveraging process. In this context the aim of the research is to check whether can one find non-Keynesian effects of fiscal consolidations in Eurozone countries in last decade. If the answer is positive, then could these non-Keynesian effects be significant developing factor in case of Eurozone countries. The third scientific question concentrates on the ways the fiscal consolidations were implemented and the potential influence of consolidations strategies on short term growth. In the research the econometric dynamic panel model based on the concept of conditional -convergence was applied. As a complementary method qualitative analysis of cases of significant contractions was made with the concentration on the differences between expansionary thus non-Keynesian cases and conventional Keynesian cases of fiscal contractions. The research results give some arguments for existence of fiscal transitions channels leading to non-Keynesian effects of fi scal policy, which in the same time can be a factor of -conditional convergence.
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