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Estimation of Yu and Meyer bivariate stochastic volatility model by iterated filtering Yu和Meyer二元随机波动模型的迭代滤波估计
Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.59139/ps.2022.04.1
Piotr Szczepocki
In financial applications, understanding the asset correlation structure is crucial to tasks such as asset pricing, portfolio optimisation, risk management, and asset allocation. Thus, modelling the volatilities and correlations of multivariate stock market returns is of great importance. This paper proposes the iterated filtering algorithm for estimating the bivariate stochastic volatility model of Yu and Meyer. The iterated filtering method is a frequentist-based approach that utilises particle filters and can be applied to estimating the parameters of non-linear or non-Gaussian state-space models. The paper presents an empirical example that demonstrates the way in which the proposed estimation method might be used to estimate the correlation between the returns of two assets: Standard and Poor’s 500 index and the price of gold in US dollars. This is accompanied by a simulation study that proves the validity of the approach.
在金融应用中,理解资产关联结构对于资产定价、投资组合优化、风险管理和资产配置等任务至关重要。因此,建立多元股票市场收益的波动性和相关性模型是非常重要的。本文提出了估计Yu和Meyer二元随机波动模型的迭代滤波算法。迭代滤波方法是一种基于频率的方法,利用粒子滤波,可用于估计非线性或非高斯状态空间模型的参数。本文给出了一个实证例子,证明了所提出的估计方法可用于估计标准普尔500指数与美元黄金价格两种资产收益之间的相关性。并通过仿真研究验证了该方法的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
Comparison of the accuracy of forecasts bsed on neural networks before and after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic on the example of selected exchange rates 以选定汇率为例,对比新冠肺炎疫情前后基于神经网络的预测准确率
Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.59139/ps.2022.04.4
Jakub Morkowski
This article examines the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the accuracy of forecasts for three currency pairs before and after its outbreak based on neural networks (ELM, MLP and LSTM) in terms of three factors: the forecast horizon, hyper parameterisation and network type.
本文从预测范围、超参数化和网络类型三个方面考察了基于神经网络(ELM、MLP和LSTM)的COVID-19大流行对疫情爆发前后三种货币对预测准确性的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of a priori positive information on the results of voting methods 先验的正面信息对投票结果的影响
Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.59139/ps.2022.04.3
H. Sosnowska, M. Ramsza, Paweł Zawiślak
The aim of this paper is to present the results of experiments relating to voting methods based on the bounded rationality theory. The research demonstrated that a positive nudge changes the voting results. The study focused on three methods of voting: the Borda Count method, the Condorcet winner method and the anti-manipulation method. In a laboratory experiment, the subjects were asked to select the best musician. They were to manipulate their voting so that a predetermined winner is chosen. In the first voting, the subjects did not receive any a priori information, while in the second voting, some a priori information was provided, i.e. the true, objective ranking of the musicians. What followed was another voting. It was initially assumed that the participants would manipulate their voting the same way as in the first voting. The results, however, were different. The obtained second ranking of musicians was closest to the true, objective ranking, thus proving that the manipulation effect was neutralised by the a priori positive information about the true, objective order.
本文的目的是介绍基于有限理性理论的投票方法的实验结果。研究表明,积极的推动会改变投票结果。研究重点是三种投票方法:博尔达计数法、孔多塞赢家法和反操纵法。在一项实验室实验中,研究对象被要求选出最好的音乐家。他们要操纵投票,这样就会选出一个预定的获胜者。在第一次投票中,受试者没有获得任何先验信息,而在第二次投票中,受试者提供了一些先验信息,即音乐家的真实、客观的排名。接下来是另一场投票。最初假设参与者会像第一次投票一样操纵他们的投票。然而,结果却不同。获得的音乐家的第二排名最接近真实的、客观的排名,从而证明操纵效应被关于真实的、客观的顺序的先验积极信息所中和。
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引用次数: 0
Sample size in clinical trials – challenges and approaches 临床试验的样本量——挑战和方法
Pub Date : 2023-05-31 DOI: 10.59139/ps.2022.04.2
A. Tomski, Barbara Gorzawska
Sample size estimation is a necessary and crucial step in clinical trial research. Statistical requirements, limited patient availability and high financial risk of a clinical trial necessitate the proper calculation of this measure. The aim of this paper is to discuss the reasons why the estimation of the sample size is important and, based on the obtained results, to show how this process may be completed in selected cases. Stochastic simulations based on the Monte Carlo methods approach are applied. Therefore, new challenges facing this area of research are mentioned.
样本量估计是临床试验研究中必要而关键的步骤。统计要求,有限的患者可用性和临床试验的高财务风险需要正确计算这一措施。本文的目的是讨论为什么估计样本量是重要的原因,并根据所获得的结果,显示如何在选定的情况下完成这一过程。采用蒙特卡罗方法进行随机模拟。因此,本文提到了这一研究领域面临的新挑战。
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引用次数: 0
Alternative investments during turbulent times comparison of dynamic relationship 另类投资在动荡时期的动态关系比较
Pub Date : 2023-02-01 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.2377
Karolina Siemaszkiewicz
The coronavirus pandemic, like the Russian aggression on Ukraine, had a significant impact on many financial markets and asset prices. The latter additionally led to large fluctuations on financial markets. In this paper, we try to compare the performance of safe haven assets during turbulent times, such as the recent global financial crises, eurozone debt crises, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian aggression on Ukraine. We investigate the dynamic relationship between indices from the European countries like the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Great Britain, Poland, Slovakia, Spain, and popular instruments such as gold, silver, Brent Crude Oil, Crude Oil WTI, US Dollar, Swiss Franc, and Bitcoin. The study estimated the parameters of either DCC or CCC models, to compare the dynamic relation between the above-mentioned stock markets and financial instruments. The results showed that in most cases, the US Dollar and Swiss Franc were able to protect investors from stock market losses during turbulent times. In those periods, gold was the closest to being a safe haven instrument for investors from France, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Our findings are in line with other literature which points out that safe haven instruments can change over time and across countries. In that literature, we can find research performed for the USA, China, Canada, and Great Britain, but there is no such research for Poland, Italy, the Czech Republic or Slovakia. The purpose of this paper is therefore to try to fill this research gap.
与俄罗斯入侵乌克兰一样,冠状病毒大流行对许多金融市场和资产价格产生了重大影响。后者还导致了金融市场的大幅波动。在本文中,我们试图比较避险资产在动荡时期的表现,例如最近的全球金融危机、欧元区债务危机、COVID-19大流行和俄罗斯对乌克兰的侵略。我们研究了捷克共和国、法国、德国、英国、波兰、斯洛伐克、西班牙等欧洲国家的指数与黄金、白银、布伦特原油、WTI原油、美元、瑞士法郎和比特币等流行工具之间的动态关系。本文分别对DCC模型和CCC模型的参数进行估计,比较上述股票市场与金融工具之间的动态关系。结果表明,在大多数情况下,美元和瑞士法郎能够在动荡时期保护投资者免受股市损失。在那些时期,黄金最接近于法国、波兰、捷克共和国和斯洛伐克投资者的避险工具。我们的发现与其他文献一致,这些文献指出,避险工具会随着时间和国家的不同而改变。在这些文献中,我们可以找到针对美国、中国、加拿大和英国的研究,但没有针对波兰、意大利、捷克共和国或斯洛伐克的研究。因此,本文的目的就是试图填补这一研究空白。
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引用次数: 0
Consumption-led expansions lead to lower future output growth 以消费为导向的扩张将导致未来产出增长放缓
Pub Date : 2023-01-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.2352
M. Virén
When assessing future growth prospects, does the current structure of demand matter, i.e. does it affect the future growth? This question is analysed in our paper by using global and EU panel data. The result is quite striking: consumption-led growth either in terms of private or public or total consumption is slower than investment-led or exports-led growth. The same qualitative result is obtained irrespectively of the length of the past growth period (lag window), yet the more often the past is characterised by consumption-led growth, the slower the growth rate is in the future. In this context, our research provides important insights from the point of view of both structural and cyclical policies.
在评估未来的增长前景时,当前的需求结构是否重要,即是否会影响未来的增长?本文利用全球和欧盟面板数据对这一问题进行了分析。其结果相当惊人:无论是从私人还是公共或总消费的角度来看,消费拉动型增长都慢于投资拉动型或出口拉动型增长。无论过去的增长期(滞后窗口)有多长,都可以得到相同的定性结果,但过去越是以消费主导的增长为特征,未来的增长率就越慢。在此背景下,我们的研究从结构性和周期性政策的角度提供了重要的见解。
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引用次数: 0
From business to clinical trials: a systematic review of the literature on fraud detection methods to be used in central statistical monitoring 从商业到临床试验:对用于中央统计监测的欺诈检测方法的文献进行系统回顾
Pub Date : 2022-12-01 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.1165
Maciej Fronc, M. Jakubczyk
Data-driven decisions can be suboptimal when the data are distorted by fraudulent behaviour. Fraud is a common occurrence in finance or other related industries, where large datasets are handled and motivation for financial gain may be high. In order to detect and prevent fraud, quantitative methods are used. Fraud, however, is also committed in other circumstances, e.g. during clinical trials. The article aims to verify which analytical fraud-detection methods used in finance may be adopted in the field of clinical trials. We systematically reviewed papers published over the last five years in two databases (Scopus and Web of Science) from the field of economics, finance, management and business in general. We considered the broad scope of data mining techniques including artificial intelligence algorithms. As a result, 37 quantitative methods were identified with the potential of being fit for application in clinical trials. The methods were grouped into three categories: pre-processing techniques, supervised learning and unsupervised learning. Our findings may enhance the future use of fraud-detection methods in clinical trials.
当数据被欺诈行为扭曲时,数据驱动的决策可能是次优的。欺诈在金融或其他相关行业很常见,在这些行业中,处理的数据集很大,获取经济利益的动机可能很高。为了发现和防止欺诈,使用了定量的方法。然而,在其他情况下,例如在临床试验期间,也存在欺诈行为。本文旨在验证金融学中使用的分析欺诈检测方法可用于临床试验领域。我们系统地回顾了过去五年在两个数据库(Scopus和Web of Science)中发表的论文,这些论文来自经济、金融、管理和商业领域。我们考虑了包括人工智能算法在内的数据挖掘技术的广泛范围。结果,37种定量方法被确定为适合应用于临床试验的潜力。方法分为预处理技术、监督学习和无监督学习三大类。我们的发现可能会在临床试验中加强欺诈检测方法的使用。
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引用次数: 0
On planning production and distribution with disrupted supply chains 在供应链中断的情况下规划生产和分销
Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.0364
Przemysław Szufel
This paper presents a model for short-term time-horizon production and distribution planning of a manufacturing company located in the middle of a supply chain. The model focuses on an unbalanced market with broken supply chains. This reflects the state of the current post-COVID-19 economy, which is additionally struggling with even more uncertainty and disruptions due to the Russian aggression against Ukraine. The manufacturer, operating on the post-pandemic and post-war market, on the one hand observes a soaring demand for its products, and on the other faces uncertainty regarding the availability of components (parts) used in the manufacturing process. The goal of the company is to maximise profits despite the uncertain availability of intermediate products. In the short term, the company cannot simply raise prices, as it is bound by long-term contracts with its business partners. The company also has to maintain a good relationship with its customers, i.e. businesses further in the supply chain, by proportionally dividing its insufficient production and trying to match production planning with the observed demand. The post-COVID-19 production-planning problem has been addressed with a robust mixed integer optimisation model along with a dedicated heuristic, which makes it possible to find approximate solutions in a large-scale real-world setting.
本文建立了供应链中游制造企业的短期生产与配送规划模型。该模型关注的是一个供应链断裂的不平衡市场。这反映了当前后covid -19经济的状况,由于俄罗斯入侵乌克兰,经济还在与更多的不确定性和破坏作斗争。在大流行后和战后市场上经营的制造商一方面看到对其产品的需求飙升,另一方面面临制造过程中使用的部件(零件)供应的不确定性。公司的目标是在中间产品供应不确定的情况下实现利润最大化。在短期内,该公司不能简单地提高价格,因为它受到与商业伙伴的长期合同的约束。公司还必须与客户保持良好的关系,即供应链中更远的企业,通过按比例划分其不足的生产,并试图将生产计划与观察到的需求相匹配。通过鲁棒混合整数优化模型和专用启发式算法解决了后covid -19生产计划问题,从而可以在大规模的现实环境中找到近似解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Do mixed-data sampling models help forecast liquidity and volatility? 混合数据抽样模型是否有助于预测流动性和波动性?
Pub Date : 2022-10-31 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0016.0363
Barbara Będowska-Sójka, Agata Kliber
This paper aims to contribute to the existing studies on the Granger-causal relationship between volatility and liquidity in the stock market. We examine whether liquidity improves volatility forecasts and whether volatility allows the improvement of liquidity forecasts. The forecasts based on the mixed-data sampling models, MIDAS, are compared to those obtained from models based on daily data. Our results show that volatility and liquidity forecasts from MIDAS models outperform naive forecasts. On the other hand, the application of mixed-data sampling models does not significantly improve the performance of the forecasts of either liquidity or volatility based on a univariate autoregressive model or a vectorautoregressive one. We found that in terms of the forecasting ability, the VAR models and the AR models seem to perform equally well, as the differences in forecasting errors generated by these two types of models are not statistically significant.
本文旨在对股票市场波动性与流动性之间的格兰杰因果关系的现有研究做出贡献。我们检验流动性是否改善波动性预测,以及波动性是否允许流动性预测的改善。将基于混合数据采样模型(MIDAS)的预测结果与基于日常数据的模型的预测结果进行了比较。我们的研究结果表明,波动率和流动性预测从MIDAS模型优于朴素预测。另一方面,混合数据采样模型的应用并没有显著提高基于单变量自回归模型或向量自回归模型的流动性或波动性预测的性能。我们发现,在预测能力方面,VAR模型和AR模型似乎表现得同样好,因为这两种模型产生的预测误差差异不具有统计学意义。
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引用次数: 0
REITs impact on typical investment portfolio – further evidence of the sector split importance REITs对典型投资组合的影响——进一步证明了行业分割的重要性
Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0015.8791
Jakub Pacholec
The REIT (Real Estate Investment Trust) returns demonstrate a time-varying linear correlation with various equity indexes, therefore they are fit for multi-asset portfolio enhancement. On the one hand, each REIT sector is characterised by a unique set of return properties, and on the other, companies within those sectors remain homogenous. The aim of this research is twofold: firstly, to verify the earlier studies on how adding REITs to mixed equities/bonds portfolios affects their risk and return characteristics, and secondly, to contribute to these studies by examining the impact of adding different REIT sectors to such portfolios over a relatively long and more up-to-date sample, i.e. the period of 1990–2019. The results indicate that, in contrast to what some previous studies suggested, adding the REIT index exposure leads to a limited portfolio enhancement only. More significant and consistent effects can be achieved by the inclusion of individual REIT sectors in an investment portfolio. Apartment REITs offered diversification benefits across the entire spectrum in all the periods, while Industrials were useful across the curve in 1990s and 2010s. Self-storage exposure, on the other hand, improved the investment portfolio performance in each of the studied decades. In general, it was enough for investors who strived for portfolio improvement over the three decades between 1990 and 2019 to have a small portion of their Value holdings replaced with the REIT sector exposure to obtain a positive impact on both the returns and the risk.
房地产投资信托基金(REIT)的收益与各种股票指数表现出时变的线性相关性,因此适合于多资产组合增强。一方面,每个REIT行业都有一套独特的回报属性,另一方面,这些行业内的公司仍然是同质化的。本研究的目的有两个:首先,验证早期关于将REIT添加到混合股票/债券投资组合中如何影响其风险和回报特征的研究,其次,通过在相对较长且更新的样本(即1990-2019年期间)中检查将不同的REIT部门添加到此类投资组合中的影响,为这些研究做出贡献。结果表明,与之前的一些研究结果相反,增加REIT指数敞口只会导致有限的投资组合增强。将个别房地产投资信托基金界别纳入投资组合,可取得更显著及一致的效果。公寓房地产投资信托基金在所有时期都提供了多样化的好处,而工业房地产投资信托基金在20世纪90年代和2010年代的整个曲线上都很有用。另一方面,自储敞口在研究的每一个十年中都提高了投资组合的绩效。总的来说,对于在1990年至2019年的三十年中努力改善投资组合的投资者来说,将一小部分价值型资产换成房地产投资信托基金部门的敞口,就足以对回报和风险产生积极影响。
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