国际银行投资组合:对宏观经济条件的短期和长期反应

Sven Blank, C. Buch
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引用次数: 21

摘要

国际银行的投资组合构成国际国家投资组合的很大一部分。然而,银行对国际宏观经济状况的反应在很大程度上仍未得到探索。我们使用一个关于银行国际投资组合的新数据集来回答三个问题。首先,银行国际投资组合的长期决定因素是什么?其次,银行的国际投资组合如何适应短期宏观经济发展?第三,调整的速度是否随金融一体化程度的变化而变化?我们发现,从长期来看,市场规模对国外资产和负债具有积极的影响。本国经济和外国经济之间息差的扩大降低了外国资产,增加了外国负债。对外贸易对国际银行投资组合有积极的影响,这种影响独立于其他宏观经济变量的影响。短期动态显示出各国之间的异质性,但这些动态可以部分地用重力类型的变量来解释。
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International Bank Portfolios: Short- and Long-Run Responses to Macroeconomic Conditions
International bank portfolios constitute a large component of international country portfolios. Yet, banks' response to international macroeconomic conditions remains largely unexplored. We use a novel dataset on banks' international portfolios to answer three questions. First, what are the long-run determinants of banks' international portfolios? Second, how do banks' international portfolios adjust to short-run macroeconomic developments? Third, does the speed of adjustment change with the degree of financial integration? We find that, in the long-run, market size has a positive impact on foreign assets and liabilities. An increase in the interest differential between the home and the foreign economy lowers foreign assets and increases foreign liabilities. Foreign trade has a positive impact on international bank portfolios, which is independent from the effect of other macroeconomic variables. Short-run dynamics show heterogeneity across countries, but these dynamics can partly be explained with gravity-type variables.
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