两国股票流动一致性模型下的通货膨胀目标制货币与财政政策

Matthew Greenwood‐Nimmo
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引用次数: 18

摘要

本文在Godley和Lavoie的基础上,建立了一个简单的两国股票流量一致性模型。为了激励稳定政策的使用,持续的通胀压力和内生经济周期被引入模型。然后模拟了三种情况:B国实际出口逐步减少,B国工资压力增加,a国所得税削减。在所有情况下,单独的货币和财政政策收效甚微,但货币和财政相结合的稳定办法证明是非常有效的。此外,该模型表明,相对于由一家央行主导利率设定的另一种规则,各国追求自主通胀目标制会带来过度的汇率波动。
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Inflation Targeting Monetary and Fiscal Policies in a Two-Country Stock-Flow Consistent Model
This paper develops a simple two-country stock–flow-consistent model based on that of Godley and Lavoie. In order to motivate the use of stabilisation policies, persistent inflationary pressure and endogenous economic cycles are introduced into the model. Three scenarios are then simulated: a step decrease in real exports from country B, increased wage pressure in country B and an income tax cut in country A. In all cases, monetary and fiscal policies in isolation enjoy little success, but a combined monetary and fiscal approach to stabilisation proves highly effective. Moreover, the model suggests that the pursuit of autonomous inflation targeting in each country introduces excessive exchange rate volatility relative to an alternative rule in which one central bank takes a leading role in interest rate setting.
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