经济周期中创新的就业效应:来自欧洲国家的企业层面证据

B. Dachs, Martin Hud, Christian Koehler, Bettina Peters
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引用次数: 17

摘要

越来越多的文献研究企业的创新投入如何对商业周期的变化作出反应。然而,到目前为止,还没有证据表明创新对企业绩效的影响是否也存在周期性。本文研究了经济周期中创新对就业的影响。我们的分析采用了来自26个欧洲国家1998年至2010年期间的制造企业的大型数据集。利用Harrison et al.(2014)的结构模型,我们的实证分析揭示了四个重要发现:第一,产品创新对就业增长的净效应是顺周期的。事实证明,除了衰退,它在所有商业周期阶段都是正的。其次,产品创新者比非产品创新者更能抵御衰退。即使在经济衰退期间,它们也能够在很大程度上用新产品的需求增长来弥补旧产品的需求损失。因此,在经济衰退中,他们的净就业损失明显低于那些非产品创新者。第三,我们只发现了中小企业的弹性,而没有发现大企业的弹性。第四,流程和组织创新主要在经济好转和衰退时期取代劳动力。
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Employment Effects of Innovations over the Business Cycle: Firm-Level Evidence from European Countries
A growing literature investigates how firms’ innovation input reacts to changes in the business cycle. However, so far there is no evidence whether there is cyclicality in the effects of innovation on firm performance as well. In this paper, we investigate the employment effects of innovations over the business cycle. Our analysis employs a large data set of manufacturing firms from 26 European countries over the period from 1998 to 2010. Using the structural model of Harrison et al. (2014), our empirical analysis reveals four important findings: First, the net effect of product innovation on employment growth is pro-cyclical. It turns out to be positive in all business cycle phases except for the recession. Second, product innovators are more resilient to recessions than non-product innovators. Even during recessions they are able to substitute demand losses from old products by demand gains of new products to a substantial degree. As a result their net employment losses are significantly lower in recessions than those of non-product innovators. Third, we only find resilience for SMEs but not for large firms. Fourth, process and organizational innovations displace labor primarily during upturn and downturn periods.
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