引言:前进一步还是后退两步?——评估意大利的转型

Stefano Fella
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摘要

自20世纪90年代初以来,大量关于意大利的学术文献讨论了意大利政治制度的变革和转型主题,特别关注了tangentopoli(回扣城市)丑闻和1992-1994年政治危机的影响,转向多数主义选举制度,战后政党制度的崩溃和向以中右翼和中左翼为基础的两极政党制度的转变,形成了一些新的和重新创造的政治形态,以及进一步修改宪法的前景。2006年的大选为这个看似永无止境的过渡提供了最新的转折点,导致2001年当选的西尔维奥•贝卢斯科尼(Silvio Berlusconi)的中右翼政府失败。事实上,尽管贝卢斯科尼政府前所未有的任期提供了相对的稳定性,但鉴于对选举法的进一步修改和中右翼政府采用的宪法改革,2001-2006年议会任期的遗产是过渡结果的更大不确定性之一。此外,2006年的选举结果给中右翼和中左翼的主要政治派别的未来留下了不确定性。本期特刊的目的是进一步揭示意大利转型的各个方面,重点关注制度进程和政党制度以及主要政治联盟的变化,评估自20世纪90年代以来的发展。考虑到意大利政治角色的普遍不可预测性,毫无根据的猜测将是愚蠢的。然而,这些主要是在2006年大选之前起草的文章提供了深刻的见解,不仅有助于解释过去15年的发展,而且有助于我们理解意大利政治正在继续的旅程。
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Introduction: One step forward or two steps back?—assessing the Italian transition
A great deal of academic literature on Italy since the early 1990s has addressed the themes of change and transition in the Italian political system, focusing in particular on the repercussions of the tangentopoli (kickback city) scandal and the political crisis of 1992–1994, the switch to a majoritarian electoral system, the collapse of the post-war party system and shift towards a bipolar party system based on centre-right and centre-left poles formed around a number of new and reinvented political formations, and the prospects of further constitutional change. The 2006 general election provided the latest turning point in what has seemed like an endless transition, resulting in defeat for Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right government elected in 2001. Indeed, despite the relative stability provided by the unprecedented length of the term of office served by the Berlusconi government, the legacy of the 2001–2006 parliamentary term was one of greater uncertainty as to the outcome of the transition, given the further changes to the electoral law introduced and the constitutional reforms adopted by the centre-right administration. Moreover, the election result of 2006 left uncertainty over the future of the main political formations within both the centre-right and centre-left pole. The aim of this special issue is to shed further light on aspects of the Italian transition, focusing both on institutional processes and change in the party system and within the main political alignments, assessing developments since the 1990s. Given the general unpredictability of political actors in Italy, idle speculation would be foolish. However, the contributions—drafted in the main prior to the 2006 election—provide insights that not only help explain the developments of the last decade and a half but also help us to understand the journey that Italian politics is continuing on.
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